655
FXUS63 KLSX 161656
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 903 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
Stratus continues to slowly advance south/southeast this morning
with leading edge now stretching from Lake of the Ozarks to KSTL
to Champaign, Illinois. This deck of stratus will become
cumuliform throughout the morning, but areas north of the
aforementioned line will likely see mostly cloudy conditions today
that will limit diurnal temperature rise. Have shaved a few
degrees off of expected highs and updated cloud cover trends based
on latest satellite imagery.
CVKING
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
Surface low centered over Great Lakes region to continue to slowly
lift to the northeast today. In the meantime, wrap around clouds on
back side of system are making some progress to the south and east,
though there is some erosion along the southern periphery of the
cloud deck. Also, still dealing with mid and high clouds from
exiting cold front over southern portions of forecast area. So main
issue for today is the cloud cover and how much there will be. Will
remain a bit pessimistic with the clouds today until we actually see
some clearing happening. Sref as well as several other models, show
wrap around cloud deck making it as far south as I-70 corridor, then
begin to lift northeast later today, while clouds to the south
continue to slide to the southeast away from forecast area. High
temps will depend on cloud cover and cold air advection on back side
of system. For now will only see highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
By tonight, upper level shortwave to slide through region. It will
bring a chance of some light rain overnight which will taper off by
Thursday morning as it lifts northeast away from region. Models are
a bit stronger with this shortwave, but moisture is limited, so qpf
amounts will be on the light side. As for low temps, low to mid 40s
expected.
Skies to clear out on Thursday but a secondary cold front will move
through region Thursday night. So by Thursday night clouds to move
back into the area from the northwest, but frontal passage should
remain dry. Highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 60s, with
lows Thursday night in the low to mid 40s.
Active pattern to continue across the area, as next in series of
upper level shortwaves slide through area on northwest flow Friday
and Friday night. Models have a better handle on this system, so
raised pops to chance category for Friday night, mainly along and
south of I-70. With models a bit faster with this system, may need
to raise pops for parts of the area for Friday afternoon, but will
leave as is with just silent slight chance pops. Highs on Friday
will be in the 60s with lows Friday night in the upper 30s to mid
40s.
Beyond that, no major changes as we remain in an active pattern.
Extended models continue to show another system moving through
region Monday and Monday night. However, timing and coverage hard to
pin down, so just have silent slight chance pops through this
period. As for temperatures, will remain at or just below normal
through the weekend and into early next week.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
MVFR stratus deck has encompassed all the terminals except CPS
this morning. Believe this deck will rise to VFR heights early
this afternoon. Otherwise, west/northwest wind to continue. Next
upper level disturbance will move across the region tonight
providing a chance of showers to the area. Have included mention
at St. Louis Metro terminals where models have converged on the
highest probability of precipitation occurring. Sky to clear
tomorrow morning.
Specifics for KSTL:
MVFR ceiling should rise to VFR early this afternoon. Upper level
disturbance to bring some light rain showers to the terminal late
tonight and early Thursday morning. Sky should clear by Thursday
afternoon with west wind continuing.
CVKING
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX