FXUS65 KLKN 142250
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
250 PM PST Thu Dec 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Stagnant conditions persist for one more night, but a
weak storm system moves across the region Friday night. Areas of
snow is expected, but mainly north of Interstate 80. Dry weather
resumes by Saturday night that will prevail for a few days.
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday.
Mostly clear conditions expected for one more night with
temperature inversions holding. Places that had patchy freezing
fog this morning will likely see it again Friday morning, such as
South Fork reservoir. Amplified ridge, that has persisted along
the West Coast for many days, weakens and allows a progressive
short wave to move across the intermountain region Friday night.
This weather system is moisture starved except for a thin ribbon
that accompanies the surface front. Energy splits as it moves
across the intermountain region, indicating this front has weak
dynamical forcing. However there is an air mass change that will
stir up the atmosphere and inversions will mix out. The best
chance for light snowfall will be over northern Humboldt/Elko
counties and Rubies with minor accumulations of around 1-2 inches
possible. Along the interstate and areas southward, only a skiff
of snow is expected with southern valleys getting clouds but not
much else. A few snow showers will linger over the higher terrain
of northeast and east central NV through Saturday. Colder
temperatures expected with highs in the lower to mid 30s, except
in the mid/upper 40s across northern Nye county.
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday.
Ridge rebounds over the eastern Pacific on Sunday, but will not be
as amplified compared to the past 10 days. The main westerlies
stay north of Nevada through Tuesday. Long wave pattern shows some
retrogression of the eastern Pacific ridge, and that may allow
for a trough to be carved out along the West Coast by next
Wednesday. The model spread is quite high and any deterministic
solution has low confidence. But a significantly colder trough may
form over the intermountain West region by next Wednesday and
Thursday. If nothing else, the stagnant weather pattern is
expected to end by mid week.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected through 00Z Saturday at all
northern and central Nevada terminals. A cold front will approach
the region from the northwest later Friday bringing a band of
thicker high and mid-level cloudiness along with the chance of a
few brief snow showers to KWMC, KEKO, and KELY later Friday night
into early Saturday morning.