618
FXUS65 KLKN 131006
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
306 AM PDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE IDAHO AND
OREGON BORDER THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA NEAR THE OREGON AND IDAHO BORDER REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
THEN LIFT NORTH BY MID MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIPITATION
OTHER THAN MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL RE-DEVELOP NEAR
JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS AND THE SANTA ROSA MOUNTAINS WITH PW'S EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW A HALF INCH...SO EXPECT VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS AS A CAP DEVELOPS NEAR 500MB AND STABILITY
INCREASES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA TO SET UP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE DIFFER SLIGHTLY BETWEEN THE
MODELS...EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO GENERATE ISOLATED
AND PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED
ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE CWA TO LIMIT TS ACTIVITY
TO JUST EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING
INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK SETTING UP A WARMING TREND THAT
SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SHOULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS BUILDING NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF KWMC AND KEKO TODAY...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WOULD BE NORTH TOWARD THE OREGON OR IDAHO BORDERS. DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NEVADA FOR DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE WEEK. ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDER
TODAY. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
90/96/96/90