904
FXUS64 KLIX 160911
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
411 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL ZONE HAS ENTERED NW LOUISIANA WITH STRATIFORM OVER-
RUNNING RAINFALL EXTENDING INTO TEXAS BIG BEND MOVING PARALLEL TO
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...WARM MOIST FLOW OFF GULF WILL
MAINTAIN ANOTHER SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT MENTION ANY
THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS WARM AIR ALOFT MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO JUST WELL DEVELOPED SHOWERS...THOUGH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG FRONT EARLY THURSDAY.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE EXCEPT NEAR RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE WARMER THAN NORMAL SIDE TODAY WITH A LITTLE
REPRIEVE THURSDAY. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON HANDLING FRONTAL ZONE UPON REACHING THE
GULF WATERS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
CONSISTENT ON HANDLING THE RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TRANSITIONED CLOSER TO ECMWF GUIDANCE IN THE LONG TERM
WHICH PAINTS 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH EXTENSIVER OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN...THUNDER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS DURATION. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CORRIDOR OF CONTINENTAL SURFACE SURGES OF
COOLER AIR INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND TO
BELOW NORMAL BY RAIN COOLED CONDITIONS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 24/RR
&&
.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH TWRDS THE
AREA BUT SHOULD NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CWA UNTIL 06Z THU OR
LATER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOWERING CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE AT THE MAJORITY
OF TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT SHRA WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE A BIGGER CONCERN THU AND LIKELY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS LA TODAY AND INTO OUR AREA THU. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT GETS A TAD CLOSER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
COASTAL WATER THU NIGHT AND STALL OVER OUR WATERS OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND BECOMING ERLY AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO ONSHORE AS A WEAK
WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE NWRN GULF/SWRN LA CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOWLY
RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH BACK TO THE
SOUTH LATE SAT AND OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST. /CAB/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 80 59 77 54 / 50 60 40 20
BTR 84 61 80 58 / 50 50 30 20
ASD 85 66 80 61 / 20 50 30 20
MSY 85 68 80 64 / 20 50 30 20
GPT 84 66 80 61 / 10 50 40 30
PQL 84 67 81 61 / 10 50 50 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
CAB