364
FXUS64 KLCH 130450
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER THIN BR MAY OCCUR AT KAEX AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUE. LOWER VIS WILL BE
LIKELY IN ANY SHOWER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NEAR CALM TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND BECOME S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
KTS DURING TUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENSIVE WEST-TEXAS ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN ITS WESTWARD
RETREAT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A CONSEQUENT BREAKDOWN IN HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN RESPONSE...A MIDWEST COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND WEST...BACKDOORING INTO THE LOUISIANA
-UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
JT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER THIN BR MAY OCCUR AROUND KAEX IN THE MORNING AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING TUESDAY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IN ANY STORM LOWER VIS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY RAIN.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
DESPITE VERY GOOD MOISTURE PROFILES AND DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE OF A WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS. INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SEEMS TO BE
WHAT IS HELPING KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK. WHAT ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
TUESDAY LOOKS CLOSE TO A REPEAT OF TODAY. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LACK OF TRIGGERING
FEATURES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
WILL PUSH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TOWARD EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE DRY FRONT...WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH ON LATE WEDNESDAY...AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP INITIATE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT AROUND...ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...LIMITING CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.
RUA
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WITH MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW
SEAS. A SURFACE COOL/DRY FRONT...WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 77 92 77 91 77 / 10 30 10 30 30
KBPT 76 93 76 92 76 / 10 20 10 20 20
KAEX 74 94 74 91 72 / 10 40 20 50 40
KLFT 77 92 77 90 76 / 10 50 10 40 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$