428
FXUS64 KLCH 161717
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1217 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. A COOL FRONT
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RAINS HAVE BEEN LIMITED WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINING POST-FRONTAL. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIP
SOUTHEAST INTO AEX THIS AFTERNOON. BEGINNING PREVAILING -RA AT
THAT TIME. LESS CONFIDENT IN EXTENT OF RAINS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND WILL AT THIS TIME HOLD ONTO NO MORE THAN
VCSH. DO EXPECT ALL SITES TO DIP INTO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT ON THE MOVE THIS MORNING...EXTENDING ACROSS THE TX
COAST...HAVING JUST PAST BPT...AND APPROACHING AEX TO LCH. RADAR
SHOWS A BKN BAND OF SHRA ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH A LARGER AREA OF SHRA OVER NE TX. BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE MOST CLOUD COVER MIXED WITH SHRA/ISO
TSRA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS. WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS & T/TD GRIDS FOR
TIMING OF FRONT...ONGOING FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM DEEP SOUTH TX
ACROSS METRO HOUSTON TO THE ARKLATEX...AND VCSH WORDING HAS BEEN
INSERTED IN THE TAFS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT. MEANWHILE SPORADIC
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE NOTED AROUND THE REGION AS PATCHY LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPS...AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS FIRST
SHIFTING TO A WRLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
SHIFT TO THE NW AS THE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THIS EVENING. A LARGE
AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EWD BEHIND THE FRONT...IMPACTING OUR TERMINALS
POST-FROPA. FINALLY CONTINUED RAIN WITH LOWER CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING A CANADIAN FRONT STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE EAST TEXAS LAKES REGION TO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA. MINIMAL LIFT IS OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF FROM ACADIANA TO HOUSTON.
BEHIND THE FRONT A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARE
STREAMING NE FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS TO TEXARKANA. THIS
MOISTURE IS THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC TS THAT IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE INCOME JET AND TROF.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST TODAY MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL GRIND TO A HALT AS IT BUMPS
INTO A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA TODAY AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE SHORT
WAVE NEARS A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF... AND HERE IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE
THIS MORNING. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASING LOCALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE FRI THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT TO WHAT DEGREE AND IF THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH IS A
QUESTION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH LESS PRECIP
LOCALLY WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH WITH MUCH
MORE RAINFALL. BEING THAT THE PREVIOUS VERSION OF THE ECMWF KEPT
THE BOUNDARY SOUTH THE FORECAST REMAINS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
FOR NOW. ALSO... IF MORE PRECIP DOES OCCUR TEMPS MAY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE THAN WHAT IS INDICATED.
A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP MAY OCCUR SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT IN A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY.
MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
WITH A NE TO EAST WIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE BACK TO
NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH WELL SOUTH DURING EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
OVER 5 FEET IN THE OUTER WATER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 83 62 74 58 76 / 40 50 30 10 20
KBPT 80 61 73 58 74 / 40 50 30 10 30
KAEX 78 58 73 53 75 / 50 50 20 10 20
KLFT 85 63 75 58 77 / 30 50 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$