879
FXUS63 KLBF 130832
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVING THEIR PROBLEMS AGAIN THIS MORNING BUT BY
AND FAR NAM SOLUTION REMAINS MUCH BETTER THAN GFS SOLUTION. GFS
RIGHT ON PLACEMENT WAY OVER DONE ON CONVECTION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHERRY COUNTY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL WAVES IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. DISTURBANCE
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER
14/00Z. BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF WYOMING AND
COLORADO HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE JUSTIFIED THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL AFFECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. FAIRLY GOOD TD SPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING SO
POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG LESS LIKELY HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST
THIS MORNING. HAVE CARRIED SCHC POPS THROUGH THE OVER NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT MIGRATES FROM WEST TEXAS TO NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE ALOFT TEMPORARILY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURE WISE...STILL NO REAL HOT WEATHER IS FORECASTED...AS
THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS A STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
ISOLATED SHRA ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS NWRN NEB/SWRN SD. THIS
COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A WEAKLY ORGANIZED AREA OF TSTMS WHICH
COULD AFFECT KVTN AS IT MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. ANOTHER BROAD AREA
OF SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOW FCST TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AFFECTING BOTH KVTN AND KLBF. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC