408
FXUS62 KKEY 130231
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1035 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST
NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY
SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND TYPICALLY MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
OVERNIGHT. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS NOT APPARENT.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE EAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 090 DEGREES AT 10
TO 12 KNOTS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2003...THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS ONLY 85
DEGREES SETTING THE WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR AUGUST 12TH.
THIS WAS THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 80
DEGREES OR HIGHER...AND ONE OF 22 SUCH DAYS DURING AUGUST OF
2003...THE 5TH WARMEST AUGUST EVER IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....FUTTERMAN
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST