805
FXUS63 KJKL 161529
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1129 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH
TRACE OR GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...IF THAT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR POINT
TOWARD THE NEXT WAVE NOW OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE SW PART OF THE ARE IN PARTICULAR.
WITH THE DENSE CLOUD COVER SO FAR...TEMPS WERE RUNNING BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THEIR CLIMB THIS MORNING. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL AS MAX T WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THE INCOMING MET MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS CHANGE
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CWA...COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY...BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. IN
FACT...MOST STATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ARE NOT
EVEN PICKING UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT IN NATURE. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP
INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...AS THE LINE
MAKES IT/S WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DON/T EXPECT MORE THAN A
QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION BY 6Z TONIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT FOR WHICH THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL PUSH
INTO EASTERN KY BY 18Z TODAY. AS IT PASSES...PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL
KY...AND POSSIBLY OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...CAN EXPECT SOME BRIEF
CLEARING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...BY 0Z THIS EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...PIVOTING SOUTHWARD
BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THIS WILL KEEP A PULL OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION...AND ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALLOW LIKELY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA...MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL THEN FINALLY CONTINUE TO THE SE STARTING
12Z THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO FINALLY TAKE IT/S PLACE
ACROSS STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST OF THE PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SKIES CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING FELT ACROSS THE FAR
EAST WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF THE LONGEST. WITH
THE COLD FRONT STALLING AND PIVOTING OVERNIGHT...CLEARING WILL NOT
BE AS FAST TO COME AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR NW SECTION OF THE CWA...WHERE /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ THE SOUTHWARD
PIVOTING WILL BRING IN A BRIEF TIME OF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE
MOVES BACK IN. LOWS HERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S.
AS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS...DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE
STALLED FRONT WILL STICK AROUND LONGER AND THUS PREVENT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FROM MOVING IN. ONCE FRONT STARTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR DESCENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT
WED OCT 16 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LATEST ECMWF
SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME GROWING CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BACKED
OFF ITS MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z VERSION OF THE TROUGH. THE DEPARTURE OF A
SMALL...BUT POTENT WAVE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WILL LEAVE
BEHIND FAST...AND RATHER QUIET...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE AREA. THE BULK OF ITS
ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS
FALL IN ITS WAKE THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. VARIOUS WEAKER WAVES
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN GENERAL FAST AND FLAT FLOW.
SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE LATER MONDAY AS MORE ENERGY POURS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPER MID CONTINENTAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE
RECENT TROUBLES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS AND FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE EXTENDED.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY DRY...IF SOMEWHAT COOL...
EXTENDED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA UP TO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. A DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE QPF MAINLY
MISSING US TO THE NORTH AND ALSO SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR A SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROPA WITH THIS. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...THOUGH THE NEXT FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE COMPROMISE
PREFERRED ABOVE WITH LITTLE POP OR SKY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AGAIN
WENT WITH SOME SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KY...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THE DAY. A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH
IT/S WAY TOWARD EASTERN KY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED RETURNS POPPING UP
ACROSS THE JKL CWA BORDER. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY. AS OF
NOW...MAIN CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF LOWERING
MVFR CIGS RATHER THAN VISIBILITY. FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER EASTERN
KY OVERNIGHT AND PIVOT SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW