Area Forecast Discussion


805 
FXUS63 KJKL 161529
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1129 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH
TRACE OR GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...IF THAT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR POINT
TOWARD THE NEXT WAVE NOW OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE SW PART OF THE ARE IN PARTICULAR.
WITH THE DENSE CLOUD COVER SO FAR...TEMPS WERE RUNNING BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THEIR CLIMB THIS MORNING. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL AS MAX T WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THE INCOMING MET MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS CHANGE
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CWA...COVERING 
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY...BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. IN 
FACT...MOST STATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ARE NOT 
EVEN PICKING UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO 
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE 
REMAINING LIGHT IN NATURE. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP 
INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...AS THE LINE 
MAKES IT/S WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DON/T EXPECT MORE THAN A 
QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION BY 6Z TONIGHT. 
THE COLD FRONT FOR WHICH THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL PUSH 
INTO EASTERN KY BY 18Z TODAY. AS IT PASSES...PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL 
KY...AND POSSIBLY OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...CAN EXPECT SOME BRIEF 
CLEARING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...BY 0Z THIS EVENING...THE 
FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...PIVOTING SOUTHWARD 
BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THIS WILL KEEP A PULL OF 
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION...AND ENOUGH 
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALLOW LIKELY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CWA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN 
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA...MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF 
THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL THEN FINALLY CONTINUE TO THE SE STARTING 
12Z THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO FINALLY TAKE IT/S PLACE 
ACROSS STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST OF THE PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SKIES CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S 
TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING FELT ACROSS THE FAR 
EAST WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF THE LONGEST. WITH 
THE COLD FRONT STALLING AND PIVOTING OVERNIGHT...CLEARING WILL NOT 
BE AS FAST TO COME AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE 
REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE 
FAR NW SECTION OF THE CWA...WHERE /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ THE SOUTHWARD 
PIVOTING WILL BRING IN A BRIEF TIME OF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE 
MOVES BACK IN. LOWS HERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S. 
AS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 
PREVIOUS...DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE 
STALLED FRONT WILL STICK AROUND LONGER AND THUS PREVENT COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR FROM MOVING IN. ONCE FRONT STARTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR DESCENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT
WED OCT 16 2013
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A 
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY 
LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LATEST ECMWF 
SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME GROWING CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BACKED 
OFF ITS MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z VERSION OF THE TROUGH. THE DEPARTURE OF A 
SMALL...BUT POTENT WAVE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WILL LEAVE 
BEHIND FAST...AND RATHER QUIET...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO 
VALLEY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES 
EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE AREA. THE BULK OF ITS 
ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS 
FALL IN ITS WAKE THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. VARIOUS WEAKER WAVES 
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN GENERAL FAST AND FLAT FLOW. 
SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE LATER MONDAY AS MORE ENERGY POURS 
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPER MID CONTINENTAL TROUGH 
BEGINS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE 
RECENT TROUBLES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO 
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS AND FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND 
FOR THE EXTENDED.  
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY DRY...IF SOMEWHAT COOL... 
EXTENDED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA UP TO THE 
START OF THE WEEKEND. A DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON 
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE QPF MAINLY 
MISSING US TO THE NORTH AND ALSO SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF 
POPS IN FOR A SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROPA WITH THIS. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK 
WEEK...THOUGH THE NEXT FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF 
THE CWA ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE BROAD 
MID LEVEL TROUGH.  
THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE COMPROMISE 
PREFERRED ABOVE WITH LITTLE POP OR SKY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AGAIN 
WENT WITH SOME SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS FOR 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. 
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KY...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THE DAY. A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH
IT/S WAY TOWARD EASTERN KY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED RETURNS POPPING UP
ACROSS THE JKL CWA BORDER. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY. AS OF
NOW...MAIN CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF LOWERING
MVFR CIGS RATHER THAN VISIBILITY. FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER EASTERN
KY OVERNIGHT AND PIVOT SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW