940
FXUS63 KJKL 130850 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FINALLY STARTING TO PRESS SOUTH
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER WITH A DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF
THIS...THOUGH...PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BRINGING ADDITION BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINS TO EAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THE RAINS...AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER...TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER AND STARTS SHUNTING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE...THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR MORE THAN A WEEK...SOUTH. PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO FOUND OUT THERE WITH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS NEARLY THE SAME
AT EACH OBS SITE...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
DEEP TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. A
TROUGH AXIS FROM THIS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT BY THEN THE LOWER LEVELS WOULD HAVE CLEARED OUT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWEST FLOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY EAST KENTUCKY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM FOR THIS FORECAST
WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN BEFORE THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO EAST KENTUCKY. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIT THIS HARD IN THE
HWO...ZONES AND GRIDS. A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE EVENING CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PARTS...AS THE
LOWER DEWPOINT AIR FILTERS DOWN OUR WAY. AM CONCERNED THAT THE
DEEPER VALLEYS TONIGHT MAY NOT MIX DOWN THAT DRY AIR AS EFFECTIVELY
AS THE REST OF OUR GEOGRAPHY SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A PLEASANT DAY TO FOLLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW US ALL TO BREATH SOME
RELIEF...DRY OUT...AND TACKLE OUTDOOR PROJECTS THAT THE RAINS OF THE
PAST WEEK HAVE DELAYED.
AGAIN...USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN CONSALL THEREAFTER. WITH TEMPS...
FAVORED THE CONSALL FOR MAX AND MIN VALUES ALONG WITH ITS DERIVED
DIURNAL CURVE. DID FINE TUNE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT A
BIT MORE TROUBLE THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAY HAVE FILTERING INTO OUR
GEOGRAPHIC NOOK AND CRANNIES. AS FOR POPS...HAVE ENDED UP CLOSER TO
THE VERY WET MET NUMBERS TODAY AND THEN IN LINE WITH THE DRY GUIDANCE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
AN AMPLIFIED 50H PATTERN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF
OVER THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR
INFILTRATING THE COMMONWEALTH. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY
FCST FOR MUCH OF ERN KY UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRI MORNING AN
INVERTED TROF AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP INTO THE AREA
AND DAY TIME HEATING COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS. THE FCST WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY UNTIL LATE FRI EVENING. EVEN AS THIS IS HAPPENING...
AT THE 50H LEVEL A VORT MAX IS DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TO
REINFORCE THE ERN TROF. THIS VORT MAX WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO A CLOSED LOW AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO NEW ENG AND
ALLOWS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO INVADE THE REGION WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF PRECIP. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NRN CONUS BORDER.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THU BEFORE THE RETURNING SOUTHERLY
FLOW CAN BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S BY FRI. 80S WILL CONTINUE
INTO SAT BEFORE THE EXPECTED PCPN WILL RESTRICT HIGHS BACK TO AROUND
80 FOR SUN AND MON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
AVN CONDITIONS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN RATHER POOR DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS AREAS OF CONVECTION AND PATCHY FOG MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THE THUNDER AND VCTS CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF LOZ AND SME. ONCE THIS WAVE OF PCPN CLEARS LATE THIS
NIGHT WOULD ALSO EXPECT LOWER VIS FROM FOG...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS
DENSE AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT AT JKL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM AND CIGS GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...GREIF