Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KIWX 162330
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
Issued at 621 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
Above normal temperatures have come in and will remain around the
region into next week. With the warm air around, the system coming
in later Sunday will be able to produce light rain and drizzle
into Monday. Thereafter, quiet weather conditions are expected 
otherwise through the middle of next week.
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
Little of consequence this period. As surmised yesterday... shearing 
srn stream sw into the Ohio valley Sun aftn looks to fall apart per 
continued consensus intramodel trends cutback on temporal 
distribution of pops for Sun aftn although do expect decaying precip 
band to overlap srn zones.
Otherwise generally moist and likely drizzly within otherwise 
favorable low level moisture flux Mon and stayed the course with 
minimal pop mention.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
Fairly flat flow aloft across the Conus into mid week before the 
pattern aloft across NOAM buckles significantly. Ewd expansion of 
low level thermal trough marks Tue as the warmest day this week and 
given the likely meltoff of existing snow cover a run toward 50 
likely south of highway 30. 
Otherwise little of sensible weather note til Fri timed with ewd 
peel of amplifying nrn stream sw trough and emergence of next arctic 
intrusion into the nrn/nern US. While placement of low level 
baroclinic zone somewhat in flux... consensus indicated 
incorporation of wrn Gomex moisture return bears watching timed with 
leading edge of cold advection wing crossing the Great Lakes. 
Blended pop solutions at this range generally accepted yet hedged 
temps lower Fri-Sun.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017
Clouds around today will continue to move to the northeast and dry
air will filter in during the overnight hours. Some models bring 
some lower CIGs/VISBY near SBN and FWA early Sunday, which appear 
to be caused by the current snow pack melting as a result of 
higher sfc Td/T today and getting caught under the nocturnal 
inversion. Biggest question will be what time does approaching 
cirrus arrive and is it enough to quell stratus/fog formation. 
Something to monitor in future forecasts. For now, believe there 
is enough confidence to put some early morning MVFR VIS at SBN 
for now.
Thereafter, expect clouds to fill in by midday to early afternoon
and showers to break out during the afternoon from south to north
before turning to drizzle later day.
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