174
FXUS63 KIND 130821
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DIMINISH WITH TIME...AND APPEARS THEY WILL
BE GONE BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND DRIER STABLE AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. NOT PLANNING
ON CARRYING POPS AFTER SUNRISE.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS TODAY SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK
ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. LAYERED HUMIDITY PANELS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...SO PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY DIURNAL
TYPE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON THURSDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...SO WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...THE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD
FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BROAD AND PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STATES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS THE
12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS AND UPPER LOW AND LIFTS IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH
ONLY A VORT MAX AND ALSO A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK.
FINALLY...THE 00Z GEM WAS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW BUT WAS MUCH QUICKER
AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE RETURN AROUND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE 12Z ECWMF LOOKS TO BE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...NOT AS QUICK TO BRING QPF TO CENTRAL INDIANA AS
THE GFS BRINGS SOME IN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY TO OUR SOUTH WHEREAS THE
GEM NEVER BRINGS ANY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE 12Z ECMWF
HINTS AT KEEPING IT DRY UNTIL SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WAS CLOSE TO THE ECWMF
SCENARIO AND FAVORED.
REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK OK WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS ON
FRIDAY BECOMING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 130900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
NO UPDATE NEEDED TO TAF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR REST OF THE PERIOD.
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY BRUSH KIND AREA NEAR THE
START OF THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD. NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH
THUNDER BY THEN...SO WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KIND. WILL
ALSO MENTION VCSH A FIRST HOUR OR TWO AT KHUF AND KBMG. BUT ITS
LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING OCCURRING THERE IS NOT THAT GOOD. THERE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR.
AFTER 13Z ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ILLINOIS. CU RULE
INDICATES SCATTERED CU ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTH TO 10 15 KNOTS TUESDAY WHICH WILL THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK
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