Area Forecast Discussion


174 
FXUS63 KIND 130821
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN 
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR 
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
A FEW SHOWERS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING OVER THE SOUTHERN 
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TREND HAS BEEN FOR 
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DIMINISH WITH TIME...AND APPEARS THEY WILL 
BE GONE BY SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN AND DRIER STABLE AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. NOT PLANNING 
ON CARRYING POPS AFTER SUNRISE.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS TODAY SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY LOOK 
ON TARGET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO 
THE AREA. LAYERED HUMIDITY PANELS OFF THE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IN 
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE...SO PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED. 
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONSIST OF MAINLY DIURNAL 
TYPE CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DURING 
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS ON THURSDAY 
MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE...SO WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF 
OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...THE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD 
FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A BROAD AND PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS 
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN STATES. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS THE 
12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS AND UPPER LOW AND LIFTS IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE 
OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS WERE A LITTLE WEAKER WITH 
ONLY A VORT MAX AND ALSO A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK. 
FINALLY...THE 00Z GEM WAS SHOWING AN UPPER LOW BUT WAS MUCH QUICKER 
AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE RETURN AROUND SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE 12Z ECWMF LOOKS TO BE 
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...NOT AS QUICK TO BRING QPF TO CENTRAL INDIANA AS 
THE GFS BRINGS SOME IN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY TO OUR SOUTH WHEREAS THE 
GEM NEVER BRINGS ANY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE 12Z ECMWF 
HINTS AT KEEPING IT DRY UNTIL SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WAS CLOSE TO THE ECWMF 
SCENARIO AND FAVORED. 
REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK OK WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS ON 
FRIDAY BECOMING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 130900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
NO UPDATE NEEDED TO TAF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. OTHERWISE...
VFR REST OF THE PERIOD.
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY BRUSH KIND AREA NEAR THE 
START OF THE NEW FORECAST PERIOD.  NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH 
THUNDER BY THEN...SO WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AT KIND. WILL 
ALSO MENTION VCSH A FIRST HOUR OR TWO AT KHUF AND KBMG. BUT ITS 
LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING OCCURRING THERE IS NOT THAT GOOD. THERE IS 
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. 
AFTER 13Z ALL AREAS WILL BE VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER 
MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ILLINOIS. CU RULE 
INDICATES SCATTERED CU ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD CLEAR BY EVENING.   
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND 
NORTH TO 10 15 KNOTS TUESDAY WHICH WILL THEN DIMINISH TUESDAY 
EVENING.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK
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