229
FXUS63 KIND 161723
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
123 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WINDS OVER INDIANA WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
TO PASS. BETWEEN COLD FRONTS...THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN
INDIANA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
CLOUDS MAIN ISSUE.
MODELS CONCUR DRY BUT CLOUDY. LAKE EFFECT STRATOCU ARE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE AND NOT CLEARING FAST. EVEN IF THEY DO LEAVE BY LATE
TONIGHT...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE COMING IN.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE...AND LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN A
MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER SKY COVER WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. IF BREAKS DEVELOP FOR EVEN A SHORT
TIME...TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY FROST COULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
MOST PRESSING PROBLEM RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.
GREAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV AND MET POPS TOMORROW...WITH MAV
WETTER. I PREFER MAV. IF YOU LOOK AT PRESSURE ADVENTURE ON POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACES...BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE GOOD FORCING THURSDAY. IN
THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS SUCH FORCING USUALLY AT LEAST CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
MODELS CONCUR ABOUT DRY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
BASICALLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND WARM GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS AGAIN DIVERGE. MET LIKELY AND MAV LOW END
CHANCE. MEX SAYS CHANCE WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A TOUGH
CALL BUT WILL USE MAV BECAUSE GFS USUALLY HANDLES SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR TEMPS THURSDAY GOING WITH COOLER MAV GIVEN I LIKE ITS RELATIVELY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. AFTER THURSDAY MOS TEMPS CLOSE. WILL USE
CONSENSUS TO GET WHATEVER SKILL THAT TECHNIQUE HAS. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOT HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE. RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES IN SKY COVER COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE OR MORE
UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND
POTENTIALLY CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS. RATHER THAN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS HOWEVER...HAVE ATTEMPTED TO PARE IT DOWN
TO THE PERIODS WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL WAVES. THUS WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY.
INITIALIZED TEMPS WERE REASONABLE AND REQUIRED NO SIGNIFICANT
INTERVENTION. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MUCH OUT OF THE 50S MOST
DAYS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S...AND PERHAPS COOLER ON
ANY CLEARER NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
VFR FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF
MFVR AT KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WEST AT
MOST SITES BEFORE QUICKLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN AS THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER TEENS RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THU...NO MENTION OF PRECIP ATTM AS COVERAGE LOOKS SPARSE AND
CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER THE TAF SITES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...SMF
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