723
FXUS61 KILN 130723
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG AN INDIANAPOLIS TO LIMA LINE WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. BY THE LATE MORNING THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED ALL OF OUR ZONES. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL END THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PASSES.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. EXPECT WINDS AROUND
15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR THAT
WHICH WILL ORIGINATE FROM EVAPORATION OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
THEREFORE AM EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
ADVECTION TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE THE MIDDLE
70S ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THIS DRY AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 50S TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
DROPPING ITO THE UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S
FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A HIGH PRESSURE AREA STRETCHING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE MODELS DROP MORE ENERGY INTO THE
ERN U.S. H5 TROF ON FRIDAY...CREATING A CUTOFF H5 LOW OVER THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS MIGHT ACT TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF PCPN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST WITH THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY. KEPT A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHC ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FOR SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY E...SCT PCPN REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ON MONDAY AS AN
INVERTED SFC TROF FOCUS THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...RISING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL RISE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE 00Z NAM ARE PICKING UP
ON THIS. AS A RESULT...CHANCES OF SEEING PCPN AT THE ACTUAL TAF
SITES MAY BE RELATIVELY LOW...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS
ARE GENERALLY RUNNING VFR AT THE MOMENT BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE THEM
DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING AS WE START TO GET
INTO SOME LOW LEVEL CAA. ANY LOWER CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO A
VFR DECK THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL