078
FXUS61 KILN 161456
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1056 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL TO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A CDFNT LOCATED IN THE PROXIMITY OF I-75 ATTM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD TODAY. THE MORE ORGANIZED PCPN IS PUSHING
ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN COUNTIES ATTM...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHRA OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE FA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION UNTIL THE
FNT SETTLES INTO ERN OH LATER TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT A DRY SLOT
WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT. WRN LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 60S IN THE E.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT UNDER WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE SHARPENS AND MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST RUN OF ECMWF PROVIDES A MOIST
SOLUTION...WITH OTHER MODELS LESS ROBUST IN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
WILL GO WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS RATHER MODEST
EVENT.
FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH...A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE OCTOBER
7. HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS REBOUNDING TO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD BUT THE MODELS VARY
IN THEIR TIMING OF THESE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO ANY PCPN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY TODAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON RADAR AS A FINE LINE MOVING ACRS
EASTERN INDIANA. EXPECT SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE KDAY TAF SITE
EARLY. MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE
RAISING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON AS A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS POSSIBLE. AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR