487
FXUS63 KICT 130800
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
DESPITE WARMING CLOUD TOPS THE ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
AN EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER FROM GREATER WICHITA NORTH TO
HUTCHINSON AND NEWTON. SHORT TERM MODELS THE PAST COUPLE RUNS HAVE
HAD A GENERAL SOUTH BIAS WHICH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS VERIFIED.
THIS MAY WELL BE THE TREND WITH RENEWED CONVECTION LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS COULD STILL PUT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINS. WILL
TRIM A FEW COUNTIES ON NORTHEAST EDGE OF FLOOD WATCH AT FORECAST
ISSUANCE. A FEW MORE MAY BE ABLE TO BE TRIMMED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS AFTER THE MORNING RAINS EXIT THE AREA. OTHERWISE WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WICHITA AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
SHUNTING PRECIP MAINLY SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AND MILD. HOWEVER
A MODESTLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL UNFORTUNATELY HAVE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
DRY WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION BY MONDAY THAT A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAY BUCKLE OVER
THE RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
AXIS OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTH
CENTRAL OK APPEARS ALIGNED WITH 850 MOIST AXIS. THE MESOSCALE
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...LIKELY AFFECTING HUT...ICT AND
POSSIBLY CNU TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS AREA-WIDE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 82 65 82 63 / 70 50 10 10
HUTCHINSON 81 63 82 62 / 70 40 10 10
NEWTON 81 62 81 61 / 70 40 10 10
ELDORADO 81 63 81 60 / 70 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 82 66 82 63 / 80 60 10 10
RUSSELL 81 61 82 62 / 30 30 10 10
GREAT BEND 80 61 82 62 / 40 30 10 10
SALINA 82 62 83 61 / 30 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 82 63 82 61 / 60 30 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 84 66 83 60 / 60 50 10 10
CHANUTE 83 64 82 58 / 40 40 10 10
IOLA 83 64 81 58 / 30 30 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 83 65 82 60 / 50 50 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ047-050>052-067>070-082-
083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$