Area Forecast Discussion


219 
FXUS63 KICT 152329
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
529 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
A shortwave trough over the Baja and northwest Mexico late this 
afternoon, is progged to eject northeastward across the Southern 
Plains Saturday into Saturday night. This will occur in response to 
additional shortwave energy digging southeastward from the northeast 
Pacific into the southwestern CONUS. 850-700 mb moisture transport 
and lift from the shortwave is progged to move northeastward across 
Oklahoma and eastern Kansas from late Saturday into midday Sunday. 
This will support a chance of light rain over south-central and 
southeast Kansas mainly late Saturday night into Sunday morning, 
with the most likely probabilities in the southeast. Amounts look 
light (<0.25 inch), given the progressive nature of this wave. 
Much warmer than average temperatures (upper 50s/lower 60s) are 
projected Saturday ahead of this wave. Lingering stratus on Sunday 
and light winds, should lead to slightly cooler temperatures (mid
40s to lower 50s). A return of sunshine, combined with light 
southwesterly downslope winds on Monday, will support highs 
rebounding to the mid-upper 50s. 
Overall forecast confidence: above average. 
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
The medium range period will begin with a mild Pacific airmass 
Tuesday/Wednesday. The GFS/Canadian were much more progressive than 
the ECMWF, with a remnant upper trough ejecting from the southwest 
across the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valleys through 
midweek. Have kept forecast dry and mild through Wednesday. The 
medium range models indicate the upper level pattern amplifying 
significantly from Thursday into the weekend. Strong 500 mb 
positive height anomalies develop over the Northwest Territories, 
with negative height anomalies from the Northern Plains into the 
Southern Rockies. This will support a modified, polar cold frontal
passage around the Thursday time-frame, with colder than normal 
temperatures filtering southward into the forecast area by 
Thursday night, persisting potentially through next weekend. Some 
light snow appears possible, mainly to the north of I-70 Thursday-
Thursday night, associated with the mid-level baroclinic zone. 
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Breezy southwest winds will diminish this evening remaining around
10-12 mph from the southwest overnight. Expect clear conditions 
over southern KS while some cirrus may impact portions of central 
KS. Confidence remains high for VFR to prevail through the 24-hr 
period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    30  60  42  51 /   0   0  50  10 
Hutchinson      29  60  39  49 /   0   0  50  10 
Newton          30  58  40  48 /   0   0  50  20 
ElDorado        31  58  42  51 /   0   0  60  20 
Winfield-KWLD   31  59  43  51 /   0   0  60  10 
Russell         28  61  31  45 /   0   0  20  10 
Great Bend      29  61  32  46 /   0   0  20  10 
Salina          30  61  38  50 /   0   0  40  10 
McPherson       29  58  38  48 /   0   0  50  10 
Coffeyville     32  60  43  53 /   0   0  80  30 
Chanute         32  59  41  52 /   0   0  90  30 
Iola            32  59  41  51 /   0   0  90  40 
Parsons-KPPF    31  59  42  53 /   0   0  80  30 
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MWM