218
FXUS64 KHUN 130518
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1218 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 959 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013/
CURRENT FIRST PERIOD GRIDS ARE IN GOOD CONDITION THIS EVENING...WITH
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES FORTHCOMING IN THIS UPDATE. THREE
INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TONIGHT: 1)REMNANTS OF LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY NOW EXITING NORTHEAST
ALABAMA, 2)STORMS ENTERING NORTHWEST ALABAMA WHICH DEVELOPED IN
PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, 3)STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...IT APPEARS THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH A
FEW CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT/WIND/SKY COVER GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND WILL REQUIRE
NO ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. THREAT FOR STORMS WILL EXIST FOR MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD
BTWN 06-12Z AT BOTH TERMINALS -- BUT GIVEN SCT/BKN NATURE OF
CONVECTION WILL ONLY FORECAST VCTS/CB RATHER THAN TSRA AS PREVAILING
WX COND. HAVE INDICATED VFR CIGS DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MVFR TO IFR
CIG/VSBY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN HEAVIER PCPN. THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NW-SE AFTER 12Z...AND
HAVE REMOVED VCTS BY 13Z/15Z AT MSL/HSV. PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS BTWN
3500-6000 FT WILL CONTINUE AFTER FROPA WITH WINDS VEERING TO NW AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. LIGHT NNE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
BY 14/02Z...WITH EITHER LOWER STRATUS OR FOG BECOMING A CONCERN BY
LATE EVENING.
70/DD
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.