524
FXUS66 KHNX 122031
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
131 PM PDT MON AUG 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR
VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH...LESS OF ITS INFLUENCE IS BEING FELT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER AND A WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING UP 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY AT
THIS TIME. THIS SLOW UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS THE WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TUESDAY...IT GETS ABSORBED
BY A DEEPER LOW DROPPING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH AGAIN
SETTLES OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. A PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BREAK
OFF AND DROP TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE OPEN WAVE PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTRAL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TOWARD ANOTHER
SURGE OF MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE AHEAD OF TROUGH PASSAGE. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT UP THE SIERRA AND
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...BUT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST. THUS HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE CREST NORTH OF KINGS CANYON FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE QUICKLY GETS PUSHED EASTWARD
SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-
ESTABLISHES IT SELF OVER CALIFORNIA. AFTER A SHORT HALT TO THE
WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 08-12 110:1933 83:1991 81:1996 55:1916
KFAT 08-13 112:1996 80:1968 79:1996 53:1954
KFAT 08-14 112:1933 74:1976 82:2012 54:1968
KBFL 08-12 111:1933 86:1991 84:2012 52:1932
KBFL 08-13 114:1933 81:1968 80:2012 54:1913
KBFL 08-14 117:1933 80:1968 83:2012 55:1912
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD