290
FXUS64 KHGX 162039
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD FROM THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO FIZZLE
OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE WIND SHIFT OR PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HAS
PUSHED OFF THE COAST BUT THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS HELD BACK A
BIT. KGLS IS STILL NEAR 80 DEGREES AT THE MOMENT. THE COOLER AIR
SHOULD PUSH TO THE COAST BY THE EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME LIGHT SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT AS THE 850MB FRONT PUSHES OFF
TOWARDS THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LITTLE HESITANT ON
THIS AS THE 12Z HAND ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK 850 BOUNDARY AT BEST WITH
A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN LATE FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO WORK IN COMBINATION WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. MODELS TEND TO KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF TOTALS OFF THE COAST
BUT RAIN CHANCES IN GENERAL WILL BE ON THE RISE. THE NEXT LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING AROUND AND ALLOW THE NEXT FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE
FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN...GFS...AND ECMWF KEEP IT WEAKER. AS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS AROUND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL IN THE
RRQ OR THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THE JET STREAK. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD TAKING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHWARDS
TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGHER
PWAT VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST THOUGH
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS COULD GO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SCHEDULE FOR SOME TIME
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
TODAY'S/TONIGHT'S FRONT WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO CAUTION
LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 54 74 55 75 58 / 20 10 10 30 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 58 77 56 76 60 / 40 20 10 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 66 74 67 77 67 / 40 40 30 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...42