843
FXUS64 KHGX 131131
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUDS UTS/CXO/CLL AREA WILL BECOME VFR THIS MORNING AFTER HEATING
SETS IN. VFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. RADAR IS QUIET AT 1130Z...AND
ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN AREA TAFS. UP NORTH (UTS AREA)...EXPECT TO SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND ON INTO TOMORROW AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING UP NORTH SAGS SOUTHWARD AND A WEAK FRONT BEGINS ITS SLOW
MOVE INTO THE AREA. INDICATED POSSIBILITY OF SHRA FOR IAH BEGINNING
AT 15Z TOMORROW. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA THAT BACK BUILT INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL HELP TO SPLIT THE
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO
TWO DISTINCT RIDGES. SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COMBINED
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S AND EVEN LOW 100S ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED AS THE LATEST
GFS RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY NEAR THE
COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND HAVE TRENDED THE CURRENT FORECAST
MORE IN LINE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT BREAK IN
TEMPERATURES. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
MAY NEED TO ADD IN SOME POPS IF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OUT WEST
PER THE ECMWF FORECAST. 38
MARINE...
A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
COAST FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY COULD BRING THE AREA A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 100 76 98 75 97 / 10 10 30 20 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 98 76 96 / 10 10 20 20 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 81 91 / 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42