086
FXUS61 KGYX 161418 AAB
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1018 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
ON MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
CLEAR SPOTS THAT ARE NOW CLOSING UP. STRATUS IS HOLDING TIGHT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREA OF RAIN OFFSHORE WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST TODAY. ADDED HIGHER
POPS FOR ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE AREAS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FNT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
A DREARY START TO THE DAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NEARLY SATURATED
LOW LVLS WILL BRING STRATUS INTO COASTAL AREAS EARLY. WEAK WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME DZ IN THESE AREAS THRU
SUNRISE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THE LOW
LVLS CLOUDS...LEAVING MOSTLY HIGH AND MID LVL OVERCAST. ENOUGH
PEEKS OF SUN AND INSOLATION WILL HELP TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEAK LOW PRES SPINNING OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT NWD THRU THE
DAY...AND MAY BACK SOME SHRA TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. HAVE SOME LOW
POP FOR THE AFTERNOON THERE...WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING POP FROM
THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE SHRA HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN THE
W...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF.
LOW PRES IS NOT REALLY DEEPENING...AS PARENT S/WV IS SHEARING OUT
AND LIFTING QUICKLY NEWD WITH TIME. AS SUCH...NOT SEEING MUCH
MECHANISM OUT THERE FOR WIDESPREAD RNFL. TRENDING POP DOWNWARDS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND PROXIMITY TO
FORCING WILL SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA. WITH CLOUDS AND
PCPN AROUND THE AREA...LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
FNT QUICKLY CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THU...AS S/WV TROF AXIS PASSES
E. S/WV RIDGING FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE...SO DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING
ALOFT SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHRA AND HELP TO BREAK UP CLOUDS LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY...WITH SRN NH AND SWRN ME MAKING A RUN INTO THE 70S WITH
ENOUGH SUN. TRAILING S/WV LIFTING OUT OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY MAY
SPREAD CLOUDS BACK INTO SWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY THU.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS WE END OUT
THE WORK WEEK.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE WEEKEND...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING IN COASTAL
STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
MOVE IN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCT SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AFTER 00Z.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES