595
FXUS61 KGYX 130740
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
340 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY AND MOVE OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF OVER THE GT LAKES AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA FROM W-E THIS MRNG AND EVEN SOME SCT TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE
AFTN AS THE AMS DESTABILIZES FURTHER BUT WITH THE LACK OF HEATING.
SOME HVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. QPF TOTALS OF .50-.75
SHOULD BE THE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR MAX TEMPS. USED RFCQPF GUID FOR THE QPF FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SHWRS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL COME
TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING A
DOWNSLOPING WNWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP USHERING AV DRIER AMS INTO THE
REGION.
ON WED A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SO INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND
SCT SHWRS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MTNS. ELSEWHERE, THE SFC HIGH PRES
BUILDING EWD WILL ALLOW THE DOWNSLOPING DRIER NWLY FLOW TO PREVAIL
SO PARTLY TO MOSUN CONDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE COOL WED WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S IN THE MTNS AND LOWER 70S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE TIME WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AVERAGING OUT NEAR NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR
SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY
FLY IN THE OINTMENT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MRNG FM W-E AS SHWRS AND SCT TSTMS SPREAD FM W-E.
THESE CONDS WILL CONT THRU THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. CONDS
WILL RETURN TO VFR AS CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE FROPA LATER
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT MAY APPROACH
THOSE CONDS ON THE WNWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA WED.
LONG TERM...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$