Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KGLD 161821
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1121 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) 
Issued at 238 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017
Across the Tri State region this morning...much of the CWA is under 
a clear sky with only NW portions of the area starting to see the 
leading edge of a low/mid cloud mix. This line is associated with a 
frontal boundary set to traverse the region late today into tonight. 
Temperatures are currently ranging from the mid 20s up to the mid 
30s...with a light WSW surface wind.
Going into today...the region will see a slow increase in cloud 
cover as the cold front trudges slowly southeastward. This will work 
out ahead of a digging upper trough thru the Rockies that sets up 
over the Plains region thru the weekend into next Monday. It will be 
the set up of the front over the region that will be the main wx 
concern during the first 72 hours of the forecast. Models carry the 
surface over western KS...with much of the CWA on the north side of 
the boundary later tonight into 12z Sunday. Abundant low level 
moisture is present and will provide some patchy freezing 
drizzle/fog to set up over the area...especially after 06z Sunday.
Lack of any major push/progression from the upper trough going into 
Sunday is going to allow clouds to well as the chances 
for patchy freezing fog/drizzle to linger thru at least 16z Sunday 
when area temps start to go above freezing. Light glazing of ice is 
possible on exposed surfaces during this time. Travel could be 
impacted thru midday Sunday.
Surface ridging from the Rockies slowly nudges into the area late 
Sunday on thru Monday night...providing dry conditions.
For temps...low to mid 50s at best for the area...but will be capped 
thru the day due to increasing clouds from the NW. CAA behind the 
expected front will give daytime highs Sunday in a range from the 
upper 30s to low 40s. With the return of high pressure Monday...low 
to mid 50s. Overnight lows will range from the upper teens into the 
mid and upper 20s...coldest Sunday night into Monday due to clearing 
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017
A much colder and active pattern will emerge Tuesday through 
Saturday. The influence of an H5 ridge will prevail on Tuesday and 
Wednesday before a strong low pushes a trough south and 
southwestward into the High Plains. 
A strong cold front will dive southward into the region late 
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. A relatively intense 
theta-e gradient will provide a focus for precipitation along and 
following the front. Light to moderate snow is in the forecast on 
Thursday as this boundary makes it's way across the CWA from 
northwest to southeast. Moisture will be adequate but not overly 
abundant as PW values will be in the 0.15" to 0.30" range. Still a 
bit early to forecast snowfall totals with confidence, but early 
estimates range from 0.5" to 2.5" from south to north. There is good 
agreement between the global models at this time that has been 
reasonably consistent for several days now. Currently, daytime high 
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s on 
Thursday; however, the 850mb temps are in the -14C to -11C range, 
which has been consistent across several model runs. We may need to 
lower temperatures a bit, especially late in the day on Thursday 
going into the overnight hours. Currently looking for lower teens 
Thursday night but middle to upper single digits are not out of the 
Continued CAA and lowered H5 heights continue into Friday and 
Saturday, keeping temperatures below average. Look for highs on 
Friday and Saturday to only reach the lower to middle 30s. 
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017
Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR today and transition
through MVFR conditions between 05-07Z as lower clouds spread
across the region following the passage of a cold front.
Conditions will lower to IFR between 09-11Z due to lower ceilings
with intermittent light freezing drizzle possible briefly between