612
FXUS63 KGLD 130445
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
COMPLICATED AND SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST. COLD FRONT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER TODAY AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED NEAR THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS SET UP NEAR THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED HERE. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS
NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT IS
LEAVING SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. JET SEGMENT AND LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA NEARLY ON TOP OF THE FRONT AND REMAINS IN NEARLY THE
SAME AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER ENOUGH ON THESE
SUBTLE DETAILS THAT NOT QUITE SURE WHERE AND WHEN SUSTAINED
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE.
TWO THINGS FOR SURE...LIFT...DETERMINISTIC QPF AND GEFS/SREFS
PROBABILITIES SUPPORT HAVING THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. SO TIERED THE POPS THAT WAY.
WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING
THEN SHOULD START WORKING MORE NORTH AND EAST AS THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY LATER TONIGHT...FOG LOOKS TO REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER WITH
MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THE COOLEST SHOULD BE.
COOLEST SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF WHERE MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES PROGRESS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER NEW MEXICO. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE. BY
FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A
SLIGHT MOVEMENT TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON....HOWEVER HAVE ONLY GONE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...A WARMING TREND SHOULD
ENSUE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO WARM. THERE
IS A 3-8 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS FOR THIS WEEK. HAVE TAKEN THE MIDDLE ROAD BETWEEN THESE TWO
AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING AS HIGH AS PROJECTED BY THE GFS. IN
ADDITION...CHANCES FOR FOG AND STRATUS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A LINGERING FRONT...LIGHT WINDS AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE.
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER THIS
WEEKEND...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE CUT OFF AS DISTURBANCES WILL
HAVE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OVER THE DAKOTAS. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE WARMER
MET GUIDANCE VERIFIES.
FINALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA AND COMING TO HALT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND/OR STALLS JUST TO THE EAST OR OVER
THE REGION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD
RESULT. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO STALL OVER
EASTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
CURRENT KGLD RADAR INDICATES PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT KGLD AND
NOT EXPECTED AT KMCK FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE POSSIBILBITY OF STRATUS/LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
NEAR KGLD WITH LESS CHANCES AT KMCK. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS