516
FXUS65 KGJT 130435
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1035 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
232 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH OVER THE CO
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST UT THIS EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AFTER IT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE UPPER
RIDGELINE WILL MOVE FROM WESTERN UT TO EASTERN UT TUE MORNING. THE
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN NW AND BECOME DRIER BY
TUE 18Z. TUE AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA WHERE A BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN.
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE RIDGE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. BY LATE TUE NIGHT THE RIDGELINE SHOULD BE OVER
THE CO/UT BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
232 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN WED-THU AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. A DISTURBANCE SLIDES
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS BUT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WED/THU/FRI LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES
RISE TO AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE DRYING CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK...MOVING
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES...
AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND. 12Z ECMWF TRACKS THIS DISTURBANCE UP ACROSS WY WHILE THE
12Z GFS BRINGS IT SQUARELY OVERHEAD BY MONDAY. WITH A BLOCKING
UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WESTERN SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY WITH
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
1035 PM MDT MON AUG 12 2013
CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING THIS EVENING THOUGH SHOULD BE COMING TO
AN END BY 03Z. MOST AREAS VFR AT THIS TIME WITH SOME MVFR BEING
REPORTED AT HIGHER OBSERVATION SITES SO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TOWARDS
MORNING BEFORE MORE CONVECTION STARTS FIRING AT 18Z. VCTS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER SOME TAF SITES WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
EXPECTED FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DIE DOWN
BY 03Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...TGR