507
FXUS65 KGGW 161449
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
849 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE TIMING AND INTESITY OF THE
RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE SLATED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY.
NO UPDATE. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF SWING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO EASTERN MONTANA.
COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TRAILING BEHIND IT. FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...WITH UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MOST AREAS
TO GET SOME RAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST
ZONES AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL KEEP COOL
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR OVER EASTERN MONTANA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE DROPS SOUTH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. EBERT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... THE AXIS OF A LARGE COLD ARCTIC TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO NUNAVUT. TO THE WEST
OF THIS... A LARGE RIDGE RUNS NORTH FROM OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO VERY
LARGE AIRMASSES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST PROVIDING AN EXPRESS LANE FOR COLD AIR AND CREATING
AN WEST TO EAST WARM TO COLD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WITH THE
BOUNDARY/GRADIENT WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH THESE SHOWERS MAY END UP
IN THE DAKOTAS AND MISS US ENTIRELY. SO CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH.
MONDAY ONWARD... AT THIS POINT ENSEMBLES STILL HOLD TO ROUGHLY A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT BEGIN TO EMBED POORLY TIMED WAVES LARGER
THAN THE TYPICAL SHORTWAVE WHICH ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH EAST OTHER. THIS
COULD MEAN A TEMPORARY RISE FROM ANY WEAK CHINOOK EVENT AND RIDGE OR
COOL DOWN/ISOLATED SHOWER FROM ANY TROUGH. FOR NOW... HAVE SKEWED
TOWARD CONS AND CLIMO PRODUCTS WITH POPS BEING FAIRLY DRY. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE HIGH MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
EVENING.
AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST THIS MORNING...
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNUP AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION AND LOW CEILINGS: A COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA TO BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS FIRST AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
MVFR ABOVE FUEL LOADING CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING... BUT THERE IS NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE TO ADD DIRECTLY
TO THE TAFS YET.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW