FXUS65 KFGZ 130330
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
830 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A series of dry weather disturbances will brush
northern Arizona over the coming days. Wednesday will provide
another day of mild weather before a cold front brings breezy and
colder weather on Thursday. For Friday, temperatures will warm
some before yet another cold front ushers in windy and colder
weather later on Saturday through Monday.
.UPDATE...Clear skies and cold temperatures are in store
overnight. No forecast updates are needed at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION /244 PM MST/...Over the coming week Arizona will
tend to be positioned between high pressure along the west coast
of the United States and a general low pressure trough to the
east. The main impact of this pattern will be that a series of
dry weather systems will brush the state bringing periods of
colder and windy conditions.
For tonight and Wednesday...A mild northerly flow regime will
remain over northern Arizona producing light winds, clear skies,
above normal daytime temperatures and below normal overnight
On Thursday...A fast moving shortwave trough and associated cold
front will move across much of Arizona from north to south. The
result in northern portions of the state will be daytime
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler and northeast winds at 10 to
20 mph locally gusting to over 30 mph with stronger pressure
gradients behind the cold front. The strongest winds will be
found along and south of the Mogollon Rim and are expected to last
through Thursday night.
From Friday into next Monday...Temperatures will warm some on
Friday as the cold front moves eastward. However, another
shortwave disturbance will approach Arizona. Winds will generally
remain light on Friday but as the shortwave approaches on Saturday
pressure gradients will support afternoon southwest winds in the
10 to 20 mph range. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal
both days. From Saturday night into Monday, yet another cold
front will cross the area with daytime temperatures dipping to
near to below normal levels. Associated with the cold frontal
passage another round of gusty northeast winds will develop. With
little moisture to work with no precipitation is expected.
For the 00Z package...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24
hour period. Expect winds to be light and easterly becoming more
variable overnight at 5 to 10 kts under clear skies. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hour period with clear skies and light winds of 10 kts
or less. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...On Wednesday, expect similar conditions compared
to Tuesday as the upper air pattern remains unchanged. Maximum
temperatures will be 8 to 15 degrees above normal. Poor to marginal
ventilation values to persist. On Thursday, a dry cold front to
sweep southward through the northland. Strong northeast winds to
develop Thursday afternoon and continue overnight across areas along
and south of the Mogollon Rim.
Friday through Sunday...Northeast winds to slowly diminish on
Friday. Another dry front may move through from north to south over
the weekend. Cooler temperatures are possible, especially across
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