Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KFGF 152141
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
341 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
500 mb short wage shown well upstream over east central
Saskatchewn. Weak surface low noted between Dauphin and Yorkton
and this will move southeast tonight into eastern ND. Isentropic
lift does increase tonight over far eastern ND into NW MN mid
level frontogenesis is quite weak. But radar returns and reports
indicate heavier snow upstream and moving into NE ND attm and this
will spread southeast and east thru the evening. So a 1-2 inch
snowfall seems reasonable. Very little fell during the day Friday
so snow totals were cut a bit from prev fcst. Risk of freezing
drizzle while not zero appears rather low as saturated layer is a
bit deeper than preferred with this system and while dry layer
aloft moves in behind this system Saturday morning unsure if
enough lift to create any light precip in the fzdz variety. For
this reason pulled mention of fzdz. Cloudy Saturday most areas,
but some aftn sun psbl in DVL region. Milder with temps in the 20s
to mid 30s. 
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
A relatively pleasant winter day is expected Sunday constructed by 
light winds, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s, clouds clearing 
from west to east, and dry conditions. Dry conditions are expected 
despite an upper level trough moving through due to surface high 
pressure at the surface and lack of moisture aloft.
On Monday, an upper level jet max pushes its way south of the area 
putting North Dakota and northern half of Minnesota into the 
cyclonic side and left exit region of the jet. Simultaneously a well 
developed mid latitude cyclone will move through central Canada 
sweeping an associated cold front/surface trough eastward through 
the Northern Plains. Reinforced by the aforementioned jet max, a mid 
level short wave will enhance precipitation chances later Monday 
within the vicinity of the surface trough. At the moment, it seems 
this will happen within the northern half of Minnesota giving 
eastern counties snow chances late Monday. Ahead of the surface 
trough Monday will be warm temperatures well into the 30s with some 
lower 40s into the southern Valley.
Stronger winds of 35-45 kt within the H8-H9 layer, tightening of the 
surface pressure gradient, and cold air advection should signal 
gusty winds early Tuesday, however there is some degree of 
uncertainty of steep lapse rates very near the surface which could 
limit mixing of strongest winds to the surface. Best chance of gusty 
northwest winds into wind advisory criteria would be mid to late 
morning Tuesday before the bulk of strongest winds exits to the 
east. Dependent on how much snow is received late Monday will be 
chance of blowing and drifting snow potential Tuesday. Winds 
gradually ease Tuesday afternoon.
The next system to impact the region looks to be Wednesday into 
Thursday. Run to run model guidance still prevents talking of 
snowfall placement and amounts, although a favorable low track to 
the south of the area would give better chances of snowfall during 
this time. Behind the system is advertised to be the intrusion of a 
colder airmass which would bring temperatures to near or 
below seasonal normals.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Ceilings to be mainly in the MVFR range thru the pd at most sites.
Though VFR at DVL until tonight. Vsbys varying from as low as 1-2
SM in light snow tonight to unrestricted.