526
FXUS63 KFGF 130845
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
345 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPS WITH SFC HIGH
AND 500MB NW FLOW PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST WITH
LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE ON MORNING LOWS.
FULL SOLAR TO GIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80. AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY DIFFICULTY IS FIGURING OUT HOW
MUCH TEMPS WILL DROP OFF FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE WHERE PWATS
ARE JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH AND LIGHT TO NO WIND. DEWPOINTS UNDER
THE HIGH CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HAVE THE FORECASTED LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE TREES WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO TRACK TO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT EVEN A BIT LOWER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH TO STILL BRING
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO MY SE ZONES WHERE THE REST OF THE AREA MAY
START TO SEE A BIT OF MIXING OR SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS TO LIMIT
BOTTOMING OUT OF THE TEMP CURVE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S EAST TO
LOW 50S WEST. RETURN FLOW AND WEAK WAA BEGIN THURSDAY AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE ABOUT 5C FROM 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI. DID RISE TEMPS INTO
THE LOW 80S FOR ALL BUT FAR EAST OF THE CWFA. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES
BRING SOME LOW QPF TO THE FAR WEST WITH THE WAA BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SINCE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. WILL KEEP OUT MEASURABLE POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL
ORIENT ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE MIDDLE
OF AUGUST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIME FRAME. A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION AND PERHAPS GENERATE SOME MCS ACTIVITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
VFR WITH NO CIGS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...BRAMER/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER