077
FXUS63 KFGF 161752
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
FORECAST LOOKING ON TRACK AT THIS POINT SO NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AREAS BY 6Z...THEN INTO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER. THERE
COULD BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
ON THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTH/SE...WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NW TO SE BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER THAN WED...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...EXPECT COOL/CYCLONIC FLOW WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH SOME
SNOW PERHAPS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH FROM CANADA AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
FOR SATURDAY-TUESDAY...A RATHER STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER
NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THESE PERIODS...WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOWLY PROGRESSING
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS
LIGHT SNOW DURING COOLER PERIODS...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE GIVEN THIS PATTERN...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR WILL NOT COME DOWN
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS WITH THE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE OF THE
REDUCED CATEGORIES LOOKS PRETTY SCATTERED HOWEVER. LOWERED CIGS A
BIT BUT KEPT THINGS AT VFR EXCEPT FOR AT KDVL WHERE THEY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING BELOW 3000 FT. CONTINUED WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DO NOT THINK THE SHOWERS WILL
BE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES. ANY LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 16Z
OR SO.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON...WITH RIVER FLOOD WATCHES REMAINING IN EFFECT ALONG THE
RED RIVER AT FARGO...S BRANCH BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN...AND BUFFALO
RIVER NEAR DILWORTH. RIVER RISES CONTINUE OVER SECTIONS OF THE RED
RIVER AND AREA TRIBUTARIES. RIVER RISES WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE OF RIVER
RISES. BASED ON CURRENT DATA...RISES ARE BEGINNING TO SLOW AT
WAHPETON...ALONG THE S BUFFALO RIVER NEAR SABIN...AND ALONG THE WILD
RICE RIVER AT ABERCROMBIE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR