489
FXUS64 KEWX 131117
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
617 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.AVIATION...
A RAGGED STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. KSAT AND KSSF WILL LIKELY HAVE
PREVAILING BKN-OVC CIGS BELOW 2 KFT WITH TEMPO IMPROVEMENTS TO SCT
BELOW 2KFT THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. LESS STRATUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
AROUND KAUS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPO BKN CIGS BELOW 2KFT FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF
SITES. LIGHT SFC WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLY 10 TO 15
KTS LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
E-W ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PLACES ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE
OVER CENTRAL TX...THUS ENDING THE BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATED
TEMPERATURES AND SENDING HIGH TEMPS INTO TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN OVER
MOST AREAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A DIFFLUENT LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN
WILL LIMIT LOW CLOUDS TO A JUST A FEW POCKETS THIS MORNING AND
LIKELY ELIMINATE LOW CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE AND CONVECTION MOVING INTO N TX TODAY COULD INCREASE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NO HIGH CLOUD IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO ENABLE THE PUSH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO CENTRAL TX...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
SHOWING IMPACTS WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND ACROSS
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAKENING BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED...BUT PERHAPS NOT IF THE CONVECTION TIMING
IS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THUS WILL PLAN TO LEAVE THE MARGINAL
CONCERN FOR GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH STILL
HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES STILL LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST...AND A MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN TO ENCOURAGE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BY SATURDAY...
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE DUE NORTHERLY...LEADING TO A DRYING
TREND TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT ONCE THE NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
DEVELOPS...AND DECREASING MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER RIDGE
PATTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES
OFFERED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 103 77 101 76 101 / - 10 20 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 102 74 101 74 101 / - 10 20 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 100 72 100 / - - - 10 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 97 74 95 / - 10 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 102 78 102 / - 0 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 99 75 97 75 96 / - 10 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 102 76 104 74 102 / - 0 - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 100 73 99 / - - 10 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 102 77 102 77 101 / - - 20 20 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 101 78 103 78 101 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 103 75 102 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18