649
FXUS64 KEPZ 160938
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM MOST OF THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SYSTEM FORECASTED TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS BETWEEN 13Z AND 21Z. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH WAS
TRANSPORTING MODERATELY MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. THUS EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
INFLOW OF DRY AIR ENDING PRECIP THREAT. CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN DRY WEATHER WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL AROUND 5
DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AROUND NORMAL.
SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK SO WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z-17/12Z.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BECOME WESTERLY
MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS MORNING EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM
10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 MPH
OVER A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 76 51 77 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 72 50 74 44 74 / 20 0 0 10 10
LAS CRUCES 73 48 74 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 71 45 69 44 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 55 35 56 32 56 / 30 0 0 10 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 70 44 72 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 44 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 75 45 76 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 74 42 77 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 76 52 77 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 46 72 43 73 / 20 0 10 10 10
FORT HANCOCK 78 49 79 45 79 / 10 0 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 69 51 72 42 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
FABENS 77 49 79 46 77 / 10 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 73 46 76 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 49 73 45 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 71 42 73 36 73 / 10 0 0 0 0
HATCH 69 45 73 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 76 47 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 71 49 73 44 74 / 10 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 59 39 62 35 62 / 30 10 0 10 10
MESCALERO 58 37 61 35 61 / 20 0 0 10 0
TIMBERON 57 41 63 34 62 / 30 10 0 10 10
WINSTON 64 34 66 32 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 65 42 69 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 43 72 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 64 37 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 67 42 70 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 70 34 72 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 70 29 70 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 66 44 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 77 44 77 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 77 47 78 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 77 44 76 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 71 47 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH