109
FXUS64 KEPZ 130954
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
DRYING TREND ALOFT. HOWEVER NEAR THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST
AND THIS WILL FUEL SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
LOWLAND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP AND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS MAY REACH
THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOME SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS MORNING MAKING FORECAST A BIT
DIFFICULT. MODELS DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BETWEEN MODELS AND ALSO
BETWEEN RUNS. UPPER HIGH NOW OVER WEST TEXAS. WV IMAGERY SHOWING OLD
MOISTURE PLUME DIFFUSE AND PRETTY MUCH LOST ITS DEFINITION. BLENDED
TPW SHOWS PWS RUNNING RANGING FROM 1.O INCH WEST 1.2 INCHES EAST.
MCS OVER SIERRA MADRES MAY BE ADDING A BIT TO THE PWS THIS MORNING
BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON LARGER UPPER
PATTERN...BRINGING THE UPPER HIGH OVER SE ARIZONA/SW NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY OVER ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. WHERE THE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING IS DOWN LOW AT SMALLER SCALES. LAST SEVERAL NAM RUNS HAVE
BEEN QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE BUT CONSECUTIVE RUNS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
MORNING TO CURRENTLY...TODAY. GFS HAS BEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE ALL ALONG
AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MEMBERS HAVE ALSO BEEN AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
EAST PUSH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PREVIOUS CONTINUITY OF SCT MTN STORMS
AND ISOLD LOWLAND STORMS. HOPEFULLY THE NEXT SHIFT CAN SEE SOME
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS. BY THURSDAY DESPITE THE NAM AND GFS
HAVING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE SAME POSITION...THE NAM IS SHOWING A
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS...WHICH COULD ALSO
LEAD IN AN UPTICK OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE CWA AND WARMING 850 TEMPS...A WARMING TREND
IS MORE OF A SURE BET AND INSERTED SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE
GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH 16Z. ADDITIONAL -SHRA/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCT060-080 AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 12
KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR DAILY DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER NEARBY LOWLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-30% RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 40-50% FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH GOOD RECOVERIES EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE VENT RATES WILL LIKELY SUFFER
SOME TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL HELP VENT RATES RECOVER SLIGHTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 96 76 95 74 97 / 10 10 10 20 20
SIERRA BLANCA 92 76 93 74 97 / 10 10 10 20 10
LAS CRUCES 93 74 93 72 98 / 10 10 10 20 20
ALAMOGORDO 95 70 94 70 96 / 20 10 20 20 20
CLOUDCROFT 69 50 68 49 71 / 30 30 30 30 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 89 68 91 66 95 / 10 10 10 20 20
SILVER CITY 84 62 83 63 86 / 30 20 30 20 30
DEMING 90 72 93 70 96 / 10 10 10 20 20
LORDSBURG 92 69 93 68 95 / 10 10 20 20 20
WEST EL PASO METRO 96 74 94 73 98 / 10 10 20 20 20
DELL CITY 93 68 93 66 97 / 10 10 20 20 20
FORT HANCOCK 98 75 97 73 99 / 10 10 10 20 10
LOMA LINDA 87 70 86 71 93 / 10 20 20 20 10
FABENS 92 74 95 72 97 / 10 10 10 20 20
SANTA TERESA 95 73 94 73 97 / 10 10 20 20 20
WHITE SANDS HQ 93 75 92 72 98 / 10 10 10 20 20
JORNADA RANGE 92 72 92 70 98 / 10 10 10 20 20
HATCH 88 72 90 70 94 / 10 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 91 73 93 71 96 / 10 10 20 20 20
OROGRANDE 94 74 94 72 98 / 10 10 20 20 20
MAYHILL 79 55 78 54 80 / 30 30 30 30 30
MESCALERO 80 52 79 51 82 / 30 30 30 30 30
TIMBERON 77 56 78 55 78 / 30 30 30 30 30
WINSTON 80 56 80 56 80 / 20 20 30 20 30
HILLSBORO 84 65 85 66 90 / 20 20 20 20 20
SPACEPORT 89 70 90 68 95 / 10 10 20 20 20
LAKE ROBERTS 82 57 81 57 82 / 20 30 30 20 30
HURLEY 84 63 85 64 86 / 20 20 20 20 20
CLIFF 89 57 90 58 92 / 10 20 20 20 20
MULE CREEK 88 56 88 57 89 / 10 20 20 20 20
FAYWOOD 84 65 85 66 89 / 20 20 20 20 20
ANIMAS 91 70 91 68 94 / 10 10 20 20 20
HACHITA 92 70 92 68 96 / 10 10 10 20 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 91 68 91 66 93 / 10 10 20 20 20
CLOVERDALE 84 64 83 65 87 / 10 20 20 20 20
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LANEY