Area Forecast Discussion


109 
FXUS64 KEPZ 130954
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
355 AM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW 
MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT 
DRYING TREND ALOFT. HOWEVER NEAR THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST 
AND THIS WILL FUEL SCATTERED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED 
LOWLAND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY 
WARM UP AND BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS MAY REACH 
THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SOME SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS MORNING MAKING FORECAST A BIT 
DIFFICULT. MODELS DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BETWEEN MODELS AND ALSO 
BETWEEN RUNS. UPPER HIGH NOW OVER WEST TEXAS. WV IMAGERY SHOWING OLD 
MOISTURE PLUME DIFFUSE AND PRETTY MUCH LOST ITS DEFINITION. BLENDED 
TPW SHOWS PWS RUNNING RANGING FROM 1.O INCH WEST 1.2 INCHES EAST. 
MCS OVER SIERRA MADRES MAY BE ADDING A BIT TO THE PWS THIS MORNING 
BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON LARGER UPPER 
PATTERN...BRINGING THE UPPER HIGH OVER SE ARIZONA/SW NEW MEXICO 
WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY OVER ARIZONA BY THURSDAY. WHERE THE MODELS ARE 
DIFFERING IS DOWN LOW AT SMALLER SCALES. LAST SEVERAL NAM RUNS HAVE 
BEEN QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE BUT CONSECUTIVE RUNS 
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING...ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY 
MORNING TO CURRENTLY...TODAY. GFS HAS BEEN LESS AGGRESSIVE ALL ALONG 
AND SOME OF THE HIGH RES MEMBERS HAVE ALSO BEEN AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS 
EAST PUSH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PREVIOUS CONTINUITY OF SCT MTN STORMS 
AND ISOLD LOWLAND STORMS. HOPEFULLY THE NEXT SHIFT CAN SEE SOME 
CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS. BY THURSDAY DESPITE THE NAM AND GFS 
HAVING THE UPPER HIGH IN THE SAME POSITION...THE NAM IS SHOWING A 
STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS...WHICH COULD ALSO 
LEAD IN AN UPTICK OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
WITH THE HIGH OVER THE CWA AND WARMING 850 TEMPS...A WARMING TREND 
IS MORE OF A SURE BET AND INSERTED SOME TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS IN THE 
GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND. 
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE 
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH 16Z. ADDITIONAL -SHRA/TSRA 
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A FEW 
SHOWERS DRIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWLANDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. 
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH SCT060-080 AND SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 12 
KNOTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY 
DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER 
THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR DAILY DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED 
ACTIVITY SPREADING OVER NEARBY LOWLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING 
HOURS. 
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-30% RANGE ACROSS THE 
LOWLANDS AND 40-50% FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH GOOD RECOVERIES EXPECTED 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE VENT RATES WILL LIKELY SUFFER 
SOME TODAY DUE TO LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY WILL HELP VENT RATES RECOVER SLIGHTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 96  76  95  74  97 /  10  10  10  20  20 
SIERRA BLANCA           92  76  93  74  97 /  10  10  10  20  10 
LAS CRUCES              93  74  93  72  98 /  10  10  10  20  20 
ALAMOGORDO              95  70  94  70  96 /  20  10  20  20  20 
CLOUDCROFT              69  50  68  49  71 /  30  30  30  30  30 
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   89  68  91  66  95 /  10  10  10  20  20 
SILVER CITY             84  62  83  63  86 /  30  20  30  20  30 
DEMING                  90  72  93  70  96 /  10  10  10  20  20 
LORDSBURG               92  69  93  68  95 /  10  10  20  20  20 
WEST EL PASO METRO      96  74  94  73  98 /  10  10  20  20  20 
DELL CITY               93  68  93  66  97 /  10  10  20  20  20 
FORT HANCOCK            98  75  97  73  99 /  10  10  10  20  10 
LOMA LINDA              87  70  86  71  93 /  10  20  20  20  10 
FABENS                  92  74  95  72  97 /  10  10  10  20  20 
SANTA TERESA            95  73  94  73  97 /  10  10  20  20  20 
WHITE SANDS HQ          93  75  92  72  98 /  10  10  10  20  20 
JORNADA RANGE           92  72  92  70  98 /  10  10  10  20  20 
HATCH                   88  72  90  70  94 /  10  10  10  20  20 
COLUMBUS                91  73  93  71  96 /  10  10  20  20  20 
OROGRANDE               94  74  94  72  98 /  10  10  20  20  20 
MAYHILL                 79  55  78  54  80 /  30  30  30  30  30 
MESCALERO               80  52  79  51  82 /  30  30  30  30  30 
TIMBERON                77  56  78  55  78 /  30  30  30  30  30 
WINSTON                 80  56  80  56  80 /  20  20  30  20  30 
HILLSBORO               84  65  85  66  90 /  20  20  20  20  20 
SPACEPORT               89  70  90  68  95 /  10  10  20  20  20 
LAKE ROBERTS            82  57  81  57  82 /  20  30  30  20  30 
HURLEY                  84  63  85  64  86 /  20  20  20  20  20 
CLIFF                   89  57  90  58  92 /  10  20  20  20  20 
MULE CREEK              88  56  88  57  89 /  10  20  20  20  20 
FAYWOOD                 84  65  85  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  20 
ANIMAS                  91  70  91  68  94 /  10  10  20  20  20 
HACHITA                 92  70  92  68  96 /  10  10  10  20  20 
ANTELOPE WELLS          91  68  91  66  93 /  10  10  20  20  20 
CLOVERDALE              84  64  83  65  87 /  10  20  20  20  20 
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
HEFNER/LANEY