Area Forecast Discussion


649 
FXUS64 KEPZ 160938
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO 
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM MOST OF THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. 
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SYSTEM FORECASTED TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND
WESTERN TEXAS BETWEEN 13Z AND 21Z. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AHEAD
OF SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH WAS 
TRANSPORTING MODERATELY MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA. THUS EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE WITH
INFLOW OF DRY AIR ENDING PRECIP THREAT. CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN DRY WEATHER WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL AROUND 5
DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SUSTAIN DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP AROUND NORMAL.
SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL BE WEAK SO WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 16/12Z-17/12Z.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL BECOME WESTERLY
MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS MORNING EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND FROM
10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 MPH
OVER A FEW LOCATIONS TODAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 76  51  77  50  76 /  10   0   0   0   0 
SIERRA BLANCA           72  50  74  44  74 /  20   0   0  10  10 
LAS CRUCES              73  48  74  43  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ALAMOGORDO              71  45  69  44  71 /  10   0   0   0   0 
CLOUDCROFT              55  35  56  32  56 /  30   0   0  10  10 
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  44  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SILVER CITY             65  44  67  37  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
DEMING                  75  45  76  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LORDSBURG               74  42  77  43  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  52  77  50  76 /  10   0   0   0   0 
DELL CITY               69  46  72  43  73 /  20   0  10  10  10 
FORT HANCOCK            78  49  79  45  79 /  10   0   0  10   0 
LOMA LINDA              69  51  72  42  73 /  10   0   0   0   0 
FABENS                  77  49  79  46  77 /  10   0   0   0   0 
SANTA TERESA            73  46  76  46  75 /  10   0   0   0   0 
WHITE SANDS HQ          70  49  73  45  73 /  10   0   0   0   0 
JORNADA RANGE           71  42  73  36  73 /  10   0   0   0   0 
HATCH                   69  45  73  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
COLUMBUS                76  47  78  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0 
OROGRANDE               71  49  73  44  74 /  10   0   0   0   0 
MAYHILL                 59  39  62  35  62 /  30  10   0  10  10 
MESCALERO               58  37  61  35  61 /  20   0   0  10   0 
TIMBERON                57  41  63  34  62 /  30  10   0  10  10 
WINSTON                 64  34  66  32  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HILLSBORO               65  42  69  38  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SPACEPORT               68  43  72  37  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
LAKE ROBERTS            64  37  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HURLEY                  67  42  70  38  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CLIFF                   70  34  72  31  72 /   0   0   0   0   0 
MULE CREEK              70  29  70  28  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
FAYWOOD                 66  44  70  39  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ANIMAS                  77  44  77  44  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HACHITA                 77  47  78  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0 
ANTELOPE WELLS          77  44  76  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0 
CLOVERDALE              71  47  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH