Area Forecast Discussion


852 
FXUS63 KEAX 130934
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
334 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017
.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017
Broad northwest flow prevailing over the Nation's midsection this
morning with water vapor imagery showing a compact shortwave
diving southeast from the Northern Plains. With time today, upper
wave will continue diving southeast through the mid Mississippi 
Valley which the attendant sfc low expected to track east towards 
the western Great Lakes by late this afternoon. As this occurs, 
fcst models in excellent agreement that a trailing cold front will
slide south over our region later today, with strong northwest 
winds expected in its wake. Given the lack of any appreciable 
precip in recent weeks, and the cured state of grasses across the
area, strong winds combined with low relative humidity values 
will set the stage for elevated fire danger once again across the 
lower Missouri Valley as winds gust to over 30 mph later today. 
For now, have hit the fire danger threat with an SPS statement for
much of the area, with the only exception being across the far 
northeast where cooler temperatures will lead to less critical 
min-RH values. Regardless, strong winds combined with dry fuels 
will allow for the rapid spread of any grass fires that ignite, 
thus outdoor burning is highly discouraged.
Aforementioned frontal passage should be marked with little more
than increasing clouds and a wind shift towards the northwest
later today. Cannot totally rule out a passing sprinkle or two
from the passing cloud cover, however dry low-level conditions 
should result in the evaporation of the majority of any precip 
that falls. Beyond this, expect cooler air to settle into the area
as high pressure slowly approaches from the northwest. In fact,
tomorrow's high temps will be close to 20 degrees cooler than
today's values. 
Next item of interest will arrive Thurs night/early Fri when
another wave dives southeast in continued northwest flow aloft.
Fcst guidance in recent days has been consistent in highlighting
light QPF as the wave approaches our area, and this suggestion 
has been maintained with this morning's runs as well. Considering 
the overall light nature, the majority of any precip will likely 
fall as sprinkles or flurries. Beyond this, dry weather looks to 
return for Friday and much of Saturday with warming temps expected
Saturday afternoon as southerly flow returns to the area. By 
Saturday night/early Sunday, fcst models suggest precip will 
start working back into the area as a disturbance tracking east 
from the Southern Rockies taps into Gulf moisture and passes to
our south. It looks as though our area will be on the northern 
fringe of the precip shield as a ridge of high pressure extends 
east across the Central Plains, however some may be lucky enough
to benefit from some rainfall, especially for locations south of 
Route 50. Otherwise, dry weather and seasonable temperatures look 
to return for the start of next week as northwest flow prevails 
aloft.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST TUE DEC 12 2017
Increased surface winds are expected through the overnight, with
gusty conditions commencing by the mid-morning hours ahead of a
weak frontal boundary. Once the boundary pushes through the area,
northwesterly flow will persist through the remainder of the 
period. 
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...32
Aviation...Welsh