321
FXUS63 KDLH 161735
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE IRON RANGE.
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...LAKE SUPERIOR
AND INTO NRN WI. RIDGING ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN QUICKLY
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE RA/DZ TO END BY
MID-MORNING WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING OFF W TO E THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY N
AND W OF THE IRON RANGE IN NE MN. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT RAINFALL TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY
FOG. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC THAT COULD HINDER FOG FORMATION.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY
WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER NRN CANADA BEGINS ITS TREK SWD AS A LEAD SHRT WV/SFC COLD
FRONT DROP IN ACROSS N/NERN MN THUR MORNING...AND MOVE INTO NE MN
BY THE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE FROPA WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW
AND USHER IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER NOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
BEFORE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY 6 PM. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE
START OF AN ACTIVE/COLD PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
AN ACTIVE AND COOL EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND.
THE UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RIDGE THAT WILL
EXTEND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH INTO THE YUKON/NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES AREA...AND A LOW OVER/NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE
NORTHLAND INTO A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREQUENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME
COOLER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS DO LOOK LIKE THEY'LL COOL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SNOW
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AT
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THIS IS DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA AND RELATIVELY
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. MORE DETAIL WILL BE ADDED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE.
WE DO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER FORTIES FRIDAY TO COOL TO
40 TO 45 OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
THERE ARE LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND A FEW AREAS
IN NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ALL TERMINALS
LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM NW TO SE THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING AN MVFR CIG LAYER
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR CIGS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 37 52 33 / 0 10 30 30
INL 54 35 46 32 / 0 10 10 10
BRD 55 37 48 32 / 0 10 40 20
HYR 52 31 51 34 / 20 0 30 30
ASX 53 34 51 36 / 20 0 30 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
147-148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI