Area Forecast Discussion


321 
FXUS63 KDLH 161735
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE LINGERING 
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ERN HALF 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN LATE TONIGHT AND 
THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW AND BRING ADDITIONAL 
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ALONG WITH 
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD ALSO BE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING 
NORTH AND WEST OF THE IRON RANGE.
UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY 
DRIZZLE LINGERING OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...LAKE SUPERIOR 
AND INTO NRN WI. RIDGING ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH BUILDING IN QUICKLY 
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE RA/DZ TO END BY 
MID-MORNING WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING OFF W TO E THROUGH THE DAY. 
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...MAINLY N 
AND W OF THE IRON RANGE IN NE MN. ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD 
SHIELD...TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND 
RECENT RAINFALL TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY 
FOG. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW LVLS JUST 
ABOVE THE SFC THAT COULD HINDER FOG FORMATION.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...TEMPERATURES 
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY 
WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS A DEEP UPPER 
LOW OVER NRN CANADA BEGINS ITS TREK SWD AS A LEAD SHRT WV/SFC COLD 
FRONT DROP IN ACROSS N/NERN MN THUR MORNING...AND MOVE INTO NE MN
BY THE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE FROPA WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW
AND USHER IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND
TEMPS WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR AROUND OR JUST AFTER NOON IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
BEFORE FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S BY 6 PM. THIS WILL ONLY BE THE
START OF AN ACTIVE/COLD PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
AN ACTIVE AND COOL EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND. 
THE UPPER PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RIDGE THAT WILL 
EXTEND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH INTO THE YUKON/NORTHWEST 
TERRITORIES AREA...AND A LOW OVER/NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE 
NORTHLAND INTO A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH 
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREQUENT SHORTWAVES WILL BE 
MOVING THROUGH THIS NORTHERLY FLOW AND BRING A CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME 
COOLER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS DO LOOK LIKE THEY'LL COOL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SNOW 
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AT 
THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY. THIS IS DUE 
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE AREA AND RELATIVELY 
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. MORE DETAIL WILL BE ADDED AS WE PROGRESS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TIMING AND 
STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE.
WE DO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER FORTIES FRIDAY TO COOL TO 
40 TO 45 OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
THERE ARE LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS NW WISCONSIN AND A FEW AREAS
IN NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT RECENTLY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ALL TERMINALS
LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM NW TO SE THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTING AN MVFR CIG LAYER
TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF IFR CIGS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  37  52  33 /   0  10  30  30 
INL  54  35  46  32 /   0  10  10  10 
BRD  55  37  48  32 /   0  10  40  20 
HYR  52  31  51  34 /  20   0  30  30 
ASX  53  34  51  36 /  20   0  30  40 
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     147-148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI