Area Forecast Discussion


941 
FXUS63 KDDC 130834
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2013
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
During the overnight hours, the heavy rain threat shifted into 
central and south-central Kansas while much of southwest Kansas was 
beginning to dry out. The longwave trough continued across eastern 
Canada into the Great Lakes region...with a reinforcing shortwave 
trough digging down into the Great Lakes. This shortwave disturbance 
lead to the frontal passage across Kansas on Monday leading to the 
evening and late night precipitation event. A mid-upper ridge was 
found across the northern Rockies, but it was not very substantial 
ridging and and there were even thunderstorm clusters across eastern 
Montana within the ridge axis. A 70-80kt 250mb jet also contributed 
to the organization of last evening's precipitation event with the 
upper jet extending from near Las Vegas, NV to central Colorado into 
eastern Kansas/Nebraska. 
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
Main changes in the forecast were lowering the high temperature for 
today given the likelihood of cloud cover remaining over much of the 
region. NAM12 and RAP models suggest that clouds will certainly hang 
in tough for much of the day (especially the RAP model). 700mb 
temperatures will be cooler today from +6 to +8C with 850mb temps 
+16 to +18C, so with clouds hanging tough and cooler lower 
tropospheric temperatures shown by the NAM, RAP, GFS...it is 
difficult to see afternoon temperatures getting much above the mid 
to upper 70s.  Any sunshine in the afternoon, though, will lead to 
destabilization and the regeneration of thunderstorms. The strong 
upper tropospheric jet will remain across Colorado and southern 
Kansas, so the perturbed mid-upper level flow across the central 
High Plains will also aid in additional thunderstorm development 
late in the day. The most likely location for afternoon thunderstorm 
development will be across eastern Colorado and far western 
Kansas...farther removed from the influence of last night's 
mesoscale convective system (MCS) and the remnant bubble surface 
high left in its wake. Any new thunderstorms this afternoon may 
evolve into one or more MCSs, however the best chance at this will 
be late in the evening and generally west of a Lakin to Liberal 
line. 
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT MON AUG 12 2013
As upper level ridging builds into the Intermountain West, 
northwesterly upper level flow will prevail across the Plains into 
Friday. Several ripples in the flow will bring slight chances for 
showers and thunderstorms into western Kansas, mainly in the late 
afternoons and evenings, into Friday Night. The upper level ridge 
will slowly move east and weaken into the weekend with mainly dry 
conditions and warming temperatures.
At the surface, broad high pressure will be found across the
Mississippi Valley into the Plains with a trough of low pressure
in the lee of the Rockies. Moist south to southeasterly surface
flow will prevail.
Overnight lows will gradually warm from the low 60s into the mid and 
upper 60s by the weekend. Daytime highs will warm gradually from the 
lower to mid 80s to around 85 to 90 by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to affect the
TAF locations (DDC, GCK, HYS) through 08-09z time frame.
Thereafter, a weakening trend in activity is expected. Prevailing
winds will be some variation of east through the night and into
the day Tuesday. Some temporary MVFR ceilings will be possible in
the 10-14z time frame...and perhaps some brief IFR. More showers
and thunderstorms are expected by afternoon as the southwest
Kansas region remains in a moist upslope low level pattern.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  59  80  61 /  60  60  30  40 
GCK  77  60  78  62 /  50  50  30  40 
EHA  83  60  81  62 /  60  60  40  40 
LBL  82  61  80  63 /  70  70  30  40 
HYS  76  60  78  60 /  40  30  30  40 
P28  78  62  81  64 /  70  70  20  40 
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID