Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KDDC 151339
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
739 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the southern High
Plains region today and tonight. 850 mb level air descending from
the higher terrain will warm the level around 15 degrees over the
next 24 hours. Most models and MOS are fairly consistent in 
forecasting spatially homogeneous afternoon highs into the lower 
to mid 50s. Not a particularly windy day either, despite southwest
flow developing. Surface winds speeds below 15 knots should only 
gust briefly during the mid afternoons peak heating. 
Mid level stratiform cloudiness that was around tonight will be
completely removed from the western KS this evening, although 
some negligible cirrus may be moving through. We should see a 
steady 10 knot southwest wind overnight as temperatures fall to 
the teens in extreme western CO border areas to around the 
freezing mark in the south central KS counties.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
The extended forecast will be subject to the large trough over the
western states, and the various embedded waves associated with 
it. The only one seemingly of interest precipitation-wise for 
our are appears Saturday might or Sunday morning as a warm 
frontal/overrunning rain possibility across south central Kansas, 
depicted by the NAM/WRF but much further east in the ECMWF 
solutions. As a result there are precip probabilities now for the
southeast counties early Sunday. The remainder of the forecast is
dry and seasonal. 
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 737 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
Surface high pressure will provide light westerly winds under 
clear sky today. Winds will eventually become more southwest by 
mid to late morning, with speeds up to around 12 to 15 knots in 
the afternoon. 
Issued at 107 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017
The widespread cured fuels combined with relatively warm 
conditions creating relative humidities into the 20 percent range 
will create an elevated fire weather danger for the next couple of
days. Winds will not be particularly strong, but some gustiness 
is likely in the afternoon between 15 and 20 knots at times. 
DDC  58  29  59  30 /   0   0   0  10 
GCK  58  26  59  27 /   0   0   0   0 
EHA  60  29  60  26 /   0   0   0   0 
LBL  59  27  61  27 /   0   0   0   0 
HYS  58  29  58  30 /   0   0   0   0 
P28  57  29  60  36 /   0   0   0  50