048
FXUS63 KDDC 161803
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
At 00z Wednesday -22c 500mb low was located near the four corners
region. This was near the based of an upper level trough that
extended from the southwest United States to the western Great
Lakes. A 500mb ridge axis extended from south central Canada into
the Pacific Northwest. At the 700mb level temperatures this
morning across the central plains ranged from -10c at North Platte
to -1c at Dodge City to +3c at Amarillo. At the 850mb level a
pools of higher dewpoints were observed across southern Nebraska
and northern Kansas with temperatures ranging from +4c at Dodge
City to -1c at North Platte and Omaha. Satellite loop also
indicating some lower cloud cover was occurring in this area of
higher 850mb dewpoints earlier this morning with Goodland
reporting a cloud bases at 3600ft and Hays reporting clouds at
4100ft. At the surface an area of high pressure was located over
southeast Wyoming with light winds near the surface ridge axis
that extending southeast of the high into western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
Latest satellite loop supporting the 00z NAM and 00Z GFS in
spreading mid level moisture/clouds into southwest Kansas during
the early morning hours. Latest 00z NAM BUFR soundings suggesting
that these clouds will linger through much of the day as the
upper level trough moves east across the central high plains.
Possible exception will be north central Kansas. Dry air is
forecast to persist today below the 800mb level under the
increasing mid level moisture so the chances for early
precipitation later this morning or early afternoon reaching the
ground currently was looking less favorable. Am however still
unable to completely rule out some very light precipitation early
today so will keep precipitation chances as is despite little if
any accumulation expected.
As for temperatures today, given cloud cover and cooler air
forecast to remain in place across western Kansas will trend
towards to cooler MAV numbers. Lows today are expected to be
mainly in the mid to upper 50s.
Light south winds will return tonight as high pressure at the
surface crosses Oklahoma. With wind speeds expected to be
slightly stronger than earlier this morning do not expect lows as
cool as 12z Wednesday. Still given clearing skies will favor lows
once again mainly in the mid to upper 30s. lower 30s still appear
to be possible in portions of west central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
Thursday:
A weak cold front will traverse across Kansas Thursday. There is not
any strong temperature advection with this boundary in the low levels.
In fact, other than a wind shift, the front will not have any major
sensible weather impacts, including to temperatures. Still expecting
maximums in the 60sF. No precipitation is expected during the day, so
will keep precipitation probabilities at zero percent. Minimums into
Friday will be on the cool side - mainly 30sF. High pressure sinking
southward will lead to light winds and a good radiational cooling night.
Friday:
The weather pattern becomes a bit more interesting Friday. A stronger
400 hPa potential vorticity anomaly will traverse across the region.
The 850 hPa baroclinic zone tightens through the day as well. At the
upper levels, southwest Kansas will be situated on the right entrance
region of a 250 hPa jet streak. This dynamic lift aloft and increasing
fgen at the lower levels will lead to widespread showers. There is still
a QPF signal in the models, so saw no reason to deviate from the likely
precipitation probabilities that were in the grids already. Friday is
also interesting as some of the models are cranking out snowfall amounts.
Inspecting forecast skew-t/log-p's shows warm low levels and parts of
the region do not even have a saturated dendritic zone... so... will
hold off on any wintry precipitation type for now. Do feel a little
bit more confident in going with the cooler side of maximum temperature
guidance as Friday looks like a cloudy/cool/light rain day. Some towns
might not break out of the 40sF for highs.
Saturday and beyond:
For the rest of the forecast period, CONUS upper level flow is forecast
to be quite amplified with a strong ridge out west and a deep trof out
east. The resultant northerly flow pattern aloft across Kansas is not
favorable for precipitation. Maximum temperatures should take an upswing
through the rest of the forecast period with 60sF returning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
A distinct shortwave in water vapor imagery will aid in transporting
mid level moisture across extreme southern Kansas this afternoon.
However the region remains in a zone of mid level weak isentropic
downglide. As a result the atmosphere is expected to remain non
convective with some virga possible near KDDC and KGCK. Light
westerly winds will persist through the TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 66 38 47 / 10 0 40 70
GCK 33 64 36 47 / 0 0 40 70
EHA 33 65 36 46 / 0 0 40 60
LBL 34 66 40 47 / 0 0 40 70
HYS 35 62 38 47 / 10 0 40 60
P28 37 68 41 50 / 10 0 40 70
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday FOR
KSZ030-031-045-046-064-065-078>080-088-089.
FREEZE WARNING from Midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 9 AM CDT
/8 AM MDT/ Thursday FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell