Supression Forecast
124
FNUS71 KCTP 151406
FWSCTP
SPOT FORECAST FOR R24...PA DMVA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1006 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING
AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED
BY A BAND OF RAIN...LASTING SEVERAL HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5
TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-3700 FT
AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............26 24 23 21 20 18 17
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60 63 65 67 67 67 67
RH..................72 68 62 57 57 56 56
20 FT WIND DIR......E E SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 5 6 6 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.5 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E E SE SE SE SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9 9 8 7 7 8 8
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 5
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............21 17 26 19 27 34 44 44 53 53 60 62
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................64 62 59 58 57 56 55 54 54 54 53 53
RH..................59 63 67 71 76 81 82 84 86 88 90 92
20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT WIND SPD......5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2
20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 5
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 3 3
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
.WEDNESDAY...
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-2800 FT
AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E SE SE SE S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5 5 6 8 10 13 14 14 13 13 13 13
LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4
$$
FORECASTER...LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...NICK HOFFMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20131015.R24__.01/CTP