466
FXUS61 KCTP 161913
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
313 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND STALL OUT. A
STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS STALLED OUT BOUNDARY AND BRING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
OCTOBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAKENING UPPER JET SUPPORT FOR THE LIFT HAS DIMINISHED MUCH OF
THE PRECIP TO LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES. THIN LINE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AND SAT PICS FM CLE-CMH APPEARS TO BE THE FRONT ASSOCD
WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL DRAG A BIT AND FINALLY STALL
OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE LIKELIES FOR THIS EVENING...BUT THEN THE LIGHT WIND SLIGHT
CONV ALONG THE FRONT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE MTS SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MURKY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND SOME DZ IS EXPECTED. TEMPS
SHOULD NOT DROP MORE THAN 10F OFF THEIR CURR 19Z READINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT IS STILL IN PLACE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TN VALLEY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY AM THURS. THIS WAVE WILL PASS RIGHT OVERHEAD ON IT/S
WAY POLEWARD AND BRING A GOOD 4-6 HR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN TO ALL OF THE AREA. BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED - LIMITED BY THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AS
THE PWATS CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE PEAK OF THE
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN HURRY UP AND PUSH EASTWARD
EARLY THURS NIGHT...AND TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS SKIES ATTEMPT TO
CLEAR IN THE SC COUNTIES. 8H TEMPS WILL DROP 6-8C THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY THRU THE CWA THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A TROUGH FOR THE EASTERN US DURING THE EXTENDED WITH
SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. NO ORGANIZED STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED...SO A GENERAL DRY PATTERN /EXCEPTION WILL BE
LAKE INDUCED SHOWERS FOR NW ZONES/ WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONT APPCHS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...BUT WASHES OUT AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL MTS.
RAIN/SHOWERS OVER KBFD WILL BE MODERATE AT TIMES...AND LEAD TO IFR
VIS/CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE RAIN...BUT MVFR CLOUDS WILL COVER MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE EAST DUE TO LINGERING MARINE LAYER. CENTRAL
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AT LEAST 04Z. THEN...THE
STALLING TROUGH/FRONT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE AREA
AND LEAD TO IFR OVER THE NRN/WRN TERMINALS AND MVFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY DZ IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRACK NEWD ALONG THE
APLCHNS INTO THE AREA THURS NIGHT. A MORE WIDESPREAD RA WILL OCCUR
THURS AFTN AND THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY THURS NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MVFR CIGS WEST/-SHRA ENDING EARLY...BCMG MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/CHC OF LK EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS NW. VFR
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...DANGELO