350
FXUS64 KCRP 162015
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF MARINE ZONES
IN THE CWA AT THIS POINT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S IN
THAT AREA. DEWPOINTS ALSO HAVE NOT DECREASED AS SUBSTANTIALLY AS
EXPECTED WITH MID AND UPPER 60S DPTS STILL HOLDING ON IN THE
SOUTHEAST...CONTRAST THIS WITH TEMPS/DPTS OF LOW 60S OVER UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT WHERE CLEARING OCCURRED
TODAY. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO JUST DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SOME UPPER 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST. HAVE DECREASED POPS
AREA WIDE WITH DRYER AIR PUSHING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. 2 INCH PWAT CONTOUR LOOKS TO STAY OFFSHORE.
FARTHEST NORTH PART OF THE AREA WOULD BE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCH
PWAT BY MORNING. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOST OF THE AREA...CHANCE
NEAR THE COAST. TOMORROW...DRYING DIPS EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND HAVE
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LAND AREAS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
MOISTURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS RETURN...THOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER MARINE AREAS.
MAX TEMPS FOR THURSDAY A BIT UNUSUAL WITH COOLEST TEMPS OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS MORE OR LESS CONSISTENT IN
ADDING UPPER SUPPORT TO ONGOING EVENT ON FRIDAY. GFS HINTS AT
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT REGARDLESS OF
EVOLUTION SIGNIFICANT POPS ARE WARRANTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING SATURDAY. SOME MARINE CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS REINFORCING OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS REACH
THE WATERS. IF THIS VERIFIES ON SCHEDULE THEN SCAS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
A BRIEF RESPITE ON SUNDAY BEFORE POPS INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES AND PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR
RESUMPTION OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION.
HAVE GONE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ON EXPECTATIONS OF LOTS OF CLOUDINESS AND VERY POOR RADIATING
CONDITIONS. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMALS FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 62 73 66 81 68 / 40 30 30 40 50
VICTORIA 58 76 60 77 63 / 30 20 20 40 50
LAREDO 62 77 66 82 66 / 30 20 20 30 50
ALICE 61 74 64 82 66 / 40 30 20 40 50
ROCKPORT 61 74 68 79 69 / 40 30 30 40 50
COTULLA 59 77 61 77 63 / 20 20 20 30 50
KINGSVILLE 62 73 66 83 68 / 40 30 30 40 50
NAVY CORPUS 64 73 70 81 72 / 40 30 30 40 50
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM