234
FXUS61 KCLE 131129
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
BY A SECOND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL POSSIBLE THAT A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS COULD POP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO LEFT
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. ALL MODELS INDICATE IT WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON TAKING THE CONVECTION OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT. THINK HIGHS
SHOULD BE BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY FALL AS COLDER AIR MOVES
OVER THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SECOND FRONT POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THIS
COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS DIPPING TO 6C SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST OF CLEVELAND. WITH 14C LAKE TO
850 MB DIFFERENTIAL WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
MORE OF A FALL TYPE PATTERN SETTING UP. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
COAST THURSDAY AND STALLS...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE US BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY AND ATTEMPT TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD OHIO. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK TO AROUND
80 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR KFDY TO KCLE TO WEST OF KERI AT
1115Z. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
NEAR AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING LOW END VFR. THIS
WILL OCCUR THE EARLIEST ACROSS NW OHIO. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE WILL LIKELY SEE THE LOW END VFR CEILINGS PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE
THESE SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
AROUND MID MORNING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 2O TO 25 KNOT
RANGE.
.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FEET. WE WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 10 AM AND
LET IT TO RUN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND HAVE GONE WITH A HIGH
RISK THROUGH 00Z.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN PERSISTS NEAR
LAKE ERIE INTO THE WEEKEND WE WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ144>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN