676
FXUS61 KCAR 161631
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1231 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOSTLY CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES DOWNEAST WITH A STEADIER RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE DOWNEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH....TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST IN WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS
DIMINISHING. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS DOWNEAST
AND PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PD THU AM
W/ LOW PRES TO THE E OF THE AREA W/ ANOTHER LOW TO THE NW. HGHST
POPS WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE W AND NW AS THE LOW NW OF THE
REGION DRAGS A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS
THE REGION ON THU W/ A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA LATER THU INTO THU NGT. MODELS THEN ADVERTISE
ANOTHER LOW TO LIFT NEWRD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND LATER THU NGT AND
THIS SHOULD BRING A ROUND OF LIKELY POPS TO OUR SRN AREAS FROM
LATE THU NGT THRU FRI AM THEN CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY AS THIS
LOW MVS QUICKLY E OF THE AREA AND WEAKENS BY FRI AFTN. NW FLOW
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK CAA WILL ALLOW THE BEGINNING OF A
COOLING TREND TO COMMENCE BY LATE FRI. AFTER A MILD DAY ON
THU...EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TO COOL A FEW DEGREES ON FRI...
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLDER AND UNSETTLED WX PTRN SHAPING UP FOR THE EXTENDED...
MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING A BROAD UPPER
TROF TO DIG/SHARPEN ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DOWN INTO THE NRN
PLAINS/GRT LAKES OVR THE WEEKEND W/ THIS TROF GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD THRU SUN INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. NUMEROUS UPPER SHORT WAVES
RIDING THRU THIS TROF WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY WEAK SFC SYSTEMS TO
DVLP OVR THE GRT LAKES AND LIFT NEWRD INTO ERN CANADA THRU THE PD
W/ EACH ONE BRINGING A ROUND OF UNSETTLED WX AS WELL AS COOLING
TEMPS IN THEIR WAKE. WILL GENERALLY CARRY CHC POPS W/ THESE POPS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS THE E AND NW. HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION
EXPECTED TO COOL FROM THE MID 50S N AND LOWER 60S S ON SAT TO THE
UPPER 40S N AND MID 50S S BY TUE. CAN NOT RULE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW BY LATE IN THE PD IF ANY OF THIS PRECIP FALLS DURING
THE COLDER LATE NGT/ERLY AM HRS. USED THE EXTENDED SUPER BLEND W/
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES THU
AM IMPRVG TO VFR BY THU AFTN W/ GENERALLY VFR CONDS AT THE SRN TAF
SITES. A ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR IS THEN EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
BUT SPCLY OUR SRN TAF SITES LATER THU NGT INTO FRI AM. VFR CONDS
RETURN FRI AFTN AND SHOULD PERSIST THRU SUN THO CAN NOT RULE SOME
PSBL MVFR CIGS LATER SAT NGT INTO SUN FOR THE NRN TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REDUCED IN FOG AND SHOWERS OR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WEAK WX SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE WATERS THRU FRI SO
EXPECT WNDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE PD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW