582
FXUS62 KCAE 161339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
939 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
GULF COAST STATES. 13Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. AS WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH MIDDAY...THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST TO PARTLY SUNNY EAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST. CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAIN SYSTEM. COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING...BUT ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT NOW WITH KEEPING THE RAINFALL
OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING
DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE UPSTATE DURING THE DAY...BUT
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING...AND SPREAD THEM EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING WELL NORTH
OF THE REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STORMS...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE RAIN ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS LOOK
PRETTY GOOD WITH TEMPERATURES AND HAVE STAYED NEAR A CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AS THE FRONT NEARLY STALLS ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST.
HOWEVER...MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS SW ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA APPEARS TO MOVE JUST NORTH ENOUGH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN
CWA/COASTAL AREAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR/JUST BELOW SEASONAL
READINGS DUE TO CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. BY MONDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE AND TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EAST APPEARS TO BRING ANOTHER
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TUESDAY TIME-FRAME INDICATING AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
GULF...SPREADING SHOWERS TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AFFECTING THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WITH CIGS AROUND 1000
FEET AT CAE/CUB/OGB. AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BEGINS...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME 16Z-17Z. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AT AGS/DNL. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$