322
FXUS61 KBTV 130839
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
439 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS
OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC AT THIS TIME. MORE RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE
WITH MAINLY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL
TODAY...SO HAVE JUST MENTIONED A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT...BUT MODELS THEN SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH A COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SLOWLY EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT TUESDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL BE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEREFORE HAVE A SILENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THEREAFTER
ECMWF SHOWS UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT WHILE GMOS BRINGS
ANOTHER UPPER TROF ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF...BC
GMOS...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...SEASONABLE DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS TREND TOWARDS MVFR
CONDITIONS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 09-12Z. BACK EDGE OF PRECIP AND MVFR
CONDITIONS MOVES INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AFTER 18Z...BUT NOT
OUT OF THE REST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE. MAIN UPDATE
WITH THESE TAFS WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG DUE TO CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA AND SLOW ONSET OF PRECIP AS IT TAKES LONGER TO GET HERE.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...SOME EARLY MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 439 AM EDT TUESD...NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM 44...
BROADCASTING FROM THE TOP OF MOUNT ASCUTNEY VERMONT...REMAINS OFF
THE AIR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A DAMAGED ANTENNA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV