007
FXUS61 KBTV 161945
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED THURSDAY. IT WILL TURN ACTIVE ONCE
AGAIN WITH STEADY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN ESTABLISHES ITSELF FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS TRENDING UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF TWO MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ONTARIO
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OHIO WITH A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN PA. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PROGRESS NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL TAKE PLACE EARLIER ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK...INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS MID- EVENING AND
ACROSS THE REST OF VERMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACCORDINGLY THE HIGHEST
POPS (70-80%) TAKE PLACE DURING THE 00-12Z THURSDAY PERIOD. THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...THOUGH ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS
TO STALL ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF QPF BUT DO EXPECT AROUND A
QUARTER TO UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH THE SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...I DON'T FEEL AS THOUGH
TEMPS WILL REALLY FALL OFF THAT MUCH GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND POST FRONTAL WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOWS ARE GENERALLY A BLEND
OF THE WARMER NON-GFS BASED MOS...IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S (WARMEST ADJACENT TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN).
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...WE STILL WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WITH THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALSO IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS FROM LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND +4 TO +6C HIGHS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THAT PERIOD OF DRYING THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF HOWEVER AS
THE SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE TROUGH ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT WILL INDUCE A WEAK SFC WAVE TO
FORM ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE. SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT INCLUDING CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING ALSO COMES WITH A SURGE IN PWS FROM .75" TO 1.25"...SO IT
SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY RAIN SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. POPS DO STEADILY INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH QPF
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH...HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VERMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY WITH ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS COMING TO AN END DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY ALLOWS 850 MB TEMPS TO FALL TO +2 TO +4C.
HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWS LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
TO THE MID 40S...STILL ABOUT NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCATION OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
AS FAR AS TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES GO...THEREFORE LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR IMPULSES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY
PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE...THOUGH AFTER A FEW IMPULSES BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW...HIGHER PEAKS COULD BE LEFT WITH A WHITE COATING.
THE GFS HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
TUE THROUGH WED. THE ECMWF HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR COND WILL GIVE WAY TO APPROACHING
FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN/FOG SLOWLY INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. EXPECTING 3-5SM FOR VSBY WITH 1SM IN MPV/SLK AFT 06Z THURS.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN010-030 THRU FROPA. WINDS 5-15KTS
FROM THE SSW W/ GUSTS TO 20KTS FOR BTV...THEN LGT FROM THE SSW
NEAR 5KTS AFT 03Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP FROM THE WSW.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MIX OF MVFR/VFR IN PERIODS OF
RAIN AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED. WAVES GENERALLY 1
TO 3 FEET WITH A MODEST CHOP IN OPEN WATERS AND IN BAYS WITH
SOUTHERLY EXPOSURE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE AFTER 2 AM EDT AS
APPROACHING FRONT PRODUCES STEADIER RAINFALL...STABILIZING THE
LOWER LEVELS. BETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND WINDS TREND WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 12 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
MARINE...JMG/KGM