682
FXUS64 KBRO 131110 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
610 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO PROVIDE VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
AREAS TO DISSIPATE ABOUT ONE HOUR AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE AUG 13 2013/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...INVERTED TROUGH IS A
DISTANT MEMORY AS ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RECENTER OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND AMPLIFY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE UPPER GULF COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE NO EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
00Z KBRO RAOB SHOWED PWAT OF 1.75 INCHES AND FURTHER DRYING OF THE
COLUMN IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PWATS LOWERING TO
AROUND 1.3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 104 TO 108 RANGE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...00Z MODEL SUITE
DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCES TO MAKE ANY WHOLE
SALE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT
EMERGES OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO AND HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT. THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON WHAT MODEL ONE DECIDES TO USE. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DRY WHILE
THE ECMWF INCREASES POPS ACROSS THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS LIES WITH THE
ECMWF INDICATING A STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
OVER SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT A
WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE DOMINATE RIDGE OVER
THE 4 CORNERS AND A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF.
WILL BE LEAVING INHERITED FORECAST UNCHANGED WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN EITHER GLOBAL MODEL ON THE
EVENTUAL OUTCOME AND INTERACTION...IF THERE IS ONE...BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE. LOOKING AT THE GFS
GUIDANCE AND TAKING IT LITERALLY IT WOULD SUGGEST TAKING ALL THE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE ECMWF INCREASES THE RAIN
CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THIS SAID GOING FORECAST
LOOKS WITHIN REASON WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A CONTINUED OVERALL HOT TEMPERATURES. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO ADJUST POPS AS WE HEAD INTO MID AND THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 020 REPORTED WINDS AROUND
10 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 2 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL RULE THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AND LOW SEAS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION A
TROPICAL WAVE OR TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MIGHT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZATION AND
STRENGTHENING. IF THIS ACTUALLY DOES OCCUR SOME INCREASE IN SWELLS
FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD WORK THEIR WAY WEST ACROSS THE GULF.
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TIME DOES NOT INDICATE THIS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. NWS FORECASTERS ALONG
WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS FOR
ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 94 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 96 78 97 79 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 99 77 99 78 / 10 10 0 10
MCALLEN 100 78 101 79 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 102 77 102 79 / 10 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 89 80 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
59...AVIATION