812
FXUS64 KBRO 161941
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
241 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SHORT TERM
CHALLENGE IS ADJUSTING TO A SHALLOW AIR MASS LOLLYGAGGING ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. A
FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN AT ZAPATA HAS BEEN ABOUT THAT HAS BEEN
WRUNG OUT OF THE SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY
QUIET. LIFT HAS BEEN LIMITED BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH HAS BARELY
MADE IT INTO THE MID VALLEY...BUTTING UP AGAINST A RESISTANT SOUTH
WIND AND WARMER AIR. REFLECTED ONGOING TRENDS BY TWEAKING DOWN
POPS IN THE INHERITED FORECAST AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
THROUGH 24 HOURS. RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT AND
THEN RISING ONLY INTO THE 70S TOMORROW UNDER A CLOUD LAYER AT THE
TOP OF THE COOL AIR WEDGE. ONE ONLY HAS TO LOOK UPSTREAM TO THE
MORNING SOUNDING FROM DEL RIO TO SEE WHAT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY LOOK LIKE THURSDAY MORNING...PRODUCING A DREARY DAY
FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK...VEERING
FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST...WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SETTING UP.
LOW TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A
COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY AND MOVE BACK SLOWLY NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WITH
INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE...WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AND UPPER
LEVEL JET IN THE AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE RGV FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ON NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY WITH COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPING
ONCE AGAIN AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNING OVER THE AREA. END
RESULT WILL BE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES...AND A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES ON SHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT THIS ENTIRE WEATHER PATTERN EASTWARD AND A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS BY LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT AS A MILD COLD FRONT AND A SHALLOW NEW AIR MASS ARRIVE AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EXERCISE CAUTION STRENGTH WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL VEER TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO HIGH END
MODERATE... OR 3 TO 5 FEET...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN A FOOT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY JUMP TO 5-7 FEET
SATURDAY BUT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
THE SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 75 72 84 / 40 40 40 40
BROWNSVILLE 68 76 70 85 / 40 40 40 40
HARLINGEN 66 75 69 86 / 40 40 30 40
MCALLEN 66 75 69 87 / 40 40 30 40
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 72 67 86 / 40 40 20 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 75 74 83 / 40 40 40 40
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...VEGA