890
FXUS64 KBMX 161135
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS STARTING TO APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE
WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP GENERATE AREAS OF SHOWERS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST THE END OF
THE WEEK...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN OVERRUNNING EVENT OVER THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS OVERRUNNING
EVENT. SOME RUNS OF SOME MODELS SHOW THE RAIN STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH...WHILE OTHER RUNS AND/OR OTHER MODELS BRING A BIG SWATH OF
RAIN INTO THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT...WITH
CONFIDENCE SO LOW...I WILL MAINTAIN JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY.
ANY OVERRUNNING RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE GONE BY
SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR IS STILL INDICATED FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT WE WONT SEE ABNORMALLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW MOVING FRONT. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 14 TO 15Z. SINCE THE CLOUDS HELD OFF A
LITTLE LONGER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
TOI AND MGM. THIS SHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...RAIN WILL STILL BE SLOW TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA...NOT
REACHING TCL UNTIL MID DAY. EXPECT MGM AND TOI TO LIKELY REMAIN
DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DID GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE
AT MGM AT THE VERY END. TOI MAY START NEAR 12Z THURSDAY BUT DID
NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A
TURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
BEGINNING THE NORTHWEST SHIFT OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN SITES.
NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING SEASONAL TERMINAL
FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE
23RD OF OCTOBER. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF
OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END
OF THE FORECAST.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$