597
FXUS61 KBGM 161941
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
341 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...DRIER AIR MOVES IN
EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE A NEW STORM SYSTEM BRINGS STEADY RAIN TO
THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...AND A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE AIR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
330 PM UPDATE...
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE FOR SOME OF THE AREA
NOW...WITH THE MAIN CONCENTRATION ALONG AND WEST OF I-81. IT WILL
BE HERE THROUGH 0Z THAT THE RAINFALL CHANCES...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL
BE THE HIGHEST. THE MAIN COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR TORONTO
AND IS JUST ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE NOW. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT A THIN LINE OF RAIN CAN BE FOUND...WITH EMBEDDED
AREAS OF BRIEFLY HEAVIER RAIN. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN NY
STATE. WHILE THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECT TO LAST LONG IN
DURATION...SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND CNY. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
NEPA THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ORGANIZED.
CONTINUE TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER'S THOUGHTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT ARE STILL
CORRECT (LIMITED INSTABILITY/NOTHING EXCITED INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL AREA).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE TO OUR
EAST BY DAYBREAK...A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
(CHECK OUT THE THIN STRIPE OF CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT NOW) WILL
KEEP OUR MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DRY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THANKS TO OUR DEVELOPING TROF IN THE EAST...WILL
ALLOW A DISTURBANCE NOW OVER EASTERN CO TO RACE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH RAIN DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
WPC GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WETTER
12Z NAM SOLUTION...WHICH WILL BRING MOST OF THE AREA A GOOD .50 TO
.75" OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH
NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...SOME AREAS JUST NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN .75".
FRIDAY/SATURDAY....AS THE MEAN TROF IN THE EAST MENTIONED ABOVE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SOUTH...OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED AS TEMPS "COOL" CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES WE WILL SEE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND BRINGS
US RAIN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
IS ALREADY READY TO GO...JUST LOOK AT THE AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
MONTANA NOW. ENJOY THE FALL PATTERN...ITS ABOUT TIME!
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SLOW PTRN CHG UNDERWAY WITH WV AFT WV SLOWLY DIGGING A BRAOD LONG
WV TROF OVER THE NE US. DAY TO DAY DETAILS DFCLT TO NAIL DOWN WITH
TIMING DFRNCS IN THE LONG TERM MODELS BUT THE GNRL TREND REMAINS.
SHRT WV/S OF NOTE INCLUDE ONE ARND SUN THAT THE GFS AND EURO HAVE
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT TIMING ON...BUT USHERS IN THE FIRST BATCH OF
BLO 0C H8 AIR...AND ANOTHER ARND TUE THAT BRINGS MORE COLD AIR AND
DEEPENS THE TROF.
WITH GREAT UNCERATINTY IN TIMING...ADJUSTED THE HPC POPS TO BE MORE
GNRL BY RAISING THE LWR POPS AND LWRG THE HIER POPS. THIS ALSO
SEEMED TO FIT WELL WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. TEMPS WERE PRETTY
MUCH LEFT AS IS ALTHROUGH THE HPC GUID IS LWR THAN THE CRNT MEX.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHWRS MVG THRU THE AREA ARE WEAKENING AS YET ANOTHER TROF APRCHS
FROM THE WEST. CRNT AREA OF PCPN COULD BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE
AREA THIS AFTN...BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS XPCTD. TNGT...STRONGER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FNT WILL PASS AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN
AND LWRD CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS PSBL. WLY WINDS BHD
THE TROF WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEFORE 12Z INCRSG
VSBYS AND CIGS THRU THE END OF THE PD.
LGT FLOW AHD OF THE TROF WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH OR SE WINDS. WLY
WINDS BHD THE TROF OVRNGT WITH A FEW GUSTS PSBL AFT SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
THU NGT/FRI...GNRL VFR WITH MVFR CIGS PSBL IN SHWRS THU NGT INTO
EARLY FRI.
SAT/SUN/MON...GNRL VFR CONDS. SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN
SHWRS THRU THE PD.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM