568
FNUS53 KAPX 160923
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
523 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
...SEASONAL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TURNING COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...
.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND A DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY...LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-162045-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
523 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........77-82 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-162045-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
523 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-162045-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
523 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
$$
MIZ031>033-162045-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
523 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). FREQUENT RAIN
SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS
UNTIL 2000...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 18 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-162045-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
523 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 1100.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........72-77 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0200...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND
50. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
SR