361
FNUS53 KAPX 122011
FWFAPX
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
...QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK...
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING US WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY FOR TUESDAY...BUT MAY TURN A BIT
GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND WESTERLY FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MIZ016-017-019-021>023-130830-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT AROUND 50 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (880).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-130830-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2300. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 3 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-130830-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 56-61 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES COOLER
NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
$$
MIZ031>033-130830-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 16 PERCENT DRIER
ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 6 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST.
24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-130830-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
411 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL 2000. PATCHY FOG AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
NS