Area Forecast Discussion


603 
FXUS64 KAMA 161945
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
TONIGHT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A
PRIME SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE ONE FACTOR WORKING AGAINST
RADIATIONAL COOLING...A SHIFT TO DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS THE WIND SHIFT IS NOT EVEN EXPECTED UNTIL
09Z...AND EVEN THEN WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH CAME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS MET GUIDANCE...FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THUS...EXPECT
NEAR FREEZING OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THIS
PERIOD. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT EVEN THOUGH CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NW PANHANDLES ARE SLIM ON FRIDAY
MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION IN THE
LOW LAYERS...SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA JUST ABOVE FREEZING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES A JUST A FEW DEGREES
LOWER...IT COULD MEAN A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW
WILL ONLY MENTION LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH
CLOSELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SLIDE OVER THE REGION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING OF
THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. AND TWO...THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                35  67  40  50  35 /   0   0  10  30   0 
BEAVER OK                  36  70  39  50  35 /   0   0  30  40   0 
BOISE CITY OK              30  66  34  49  35 /   0   0  10  20   0 
BORGER TX                  35  71  43  53  39 /   0   0  10  30   0 
BOYS RANCH TX              34  68  38  55  36 /   0   0  10  20   0 
CANYON TX                  35  70  39  54  33 /   0   0  10  20   0 
CLARENDON TX               36  70  42  54  37 /   0   0  20  30  20 
DALHART TX                 30  69  36  50  31 /   0   0  10  20   0 
GUYMON OK                  34  69  38  51  35 /   0   0  10  40   0 
HEREFORD TX                35  70  39  57  31 /   0   0  10  20   0 
LIPSCOMB TX                34  71  40  52  34 /   0   0  30  40   5 
PAMPA TX                   37  66  41  52  35 /   0   0  20  30   5 
SHAMROCK TX                35  71  46  58  35 /   0   0  20  30  20 
WELLINGTON TX              36  72  47  60  37 /   0   0  20  30  20 
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/16