603
FXUS64 KAMA 161945
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
245 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE FALL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
TONIGHT...AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A
PRIME SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE ONE FACTOR WORKING AGAINST
RADIATIONAL COOLING...A SHIFT TO DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS...SHOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS THE WIND SHIFT IS NOT EVEN EXPECTED UNTIL
09Z...AND EVEN THEN WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS IN
MIND...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH CAME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE PREVIOUS MET GUIDANCE...FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THUS...EXPECT
NEAR FREEZING OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THIS
PERIOD. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. ONE CONCERN IS THAT EVEN THOUGH CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NW PANHANDLES ARE SLIM ON FRIDAY
MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION IN THE
LOW LAYERS...SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA JUST ABOVE FREEZING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES A JUST A FEW DEGREES
LOWER...IT COULD MEAN A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW
WILL ONLY MENTION LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH
CLOSELY.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FEW PERIODS OF INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SLIDE OVER THE REGION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE TIMING OF
THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS. AND TWO...THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
JOHNSON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COOL WEATHER WILL HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 20
PERCENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
JOHNSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 35 67 40 50 35 / 0 0 10 30 0
BEAVER OK 36 70 39 50 35 / 0 0 30 40 0
BOISE CITY OK 30 66 34 49 35 / 0 0 10 20 0
BORGER TX 35 71 43 53 39 / 0 0 10 30 0
BOYS RANCH TX 34 68 38 55 36 / 0 0 10 20 0
CANYON TX 35 70 39 54 33 / 0 0 10 20 0
CLARENDON TX 36 70 42 54 37 / 0 0 20 30 20
DALHART TX 30 69 36 50 31 / 0 0 10 20 0
GUYMON OK 34 69 38 51 35 / 0 0 10 40 0
HEREFORD TX 35 70 39 57 31 / 0 0 10 20 0
LIPSCOMB TX 34 71 40 52 34 / 0 0 30 40 5
PAMPA TX 37 66 41 52 35 / 0 0 20 30 5
SHAMROCK TX 35 71 46 58 35 / 0 0 20 30 20
WELLINGTON TX 36 72 47 60 37 / 0 0 20 30 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/16