802
FXUS61 KALY 161625
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RETURNS SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1220 PM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUED OVER THE REGION BUT RADARS
INDICATED NO RAINFALL..EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
HAMITON AND EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES.
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ACCURATE AS IS. HOWEVER DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND THE REALIZATION WE WILL NOT LIKLEY MIX ABOVE
900 MB (2,800 FEET) OFF OUR MORNING SOUNDING...LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS MANY AREAS.
SO FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALBANY OTHER WISE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FROM THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN...TO LOWER TO MID 60S MOST VALLEY AREAS.
A SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST BREEZE WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...AND THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE WITH
THE SFC COLD FRONT. PWATS DO RISE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONGER
DYNAMICS LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS NO CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS /SUCH AS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES/ MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL...AS THE SHOWERS DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE CATSKILLS AND THE BETTER SHOWERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...SOME 40S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING
WINDS TO SWITCH TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION. DESPITE THIS...TEMPS WON/T
BE DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH...AS CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUN AND CONTINUED
MILD TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA/NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE WHOLE AREA IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
AND RAINFALL.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY MORNING. OUR AREA STILL DOESN/T
GET INTO TOO COOL OF AN AIRMASS JUST YET...AS THE FLOW ALOFT AT 500
HPA REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FRIDAY...WITH MID 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH A PARTLY
SUNNY SKY. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S TO
LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY ACTIVE AND CHAOTIC PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD OF SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AS
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSES OUT OF CANADA OCCASIONALLY LINK WITH
SMALL PIECES OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOISTURE...BUT CHAOTIC
AND FAST UPPER FLOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY REAL PHASING OF THE 2
STREAMS...PREVENTING ANY BIG STORMS. STILL...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ABOUT EVERY 24-36 HOURS AS PROGRESSIVE SURGES OF COOLER AIR
BUILD EAST AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS AND
FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT THE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF RAIN IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND WILL
LIKELY CHANGE WITH EACH SET OF NEW GUIDANCE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER...TOO...BUT THE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER DEPEND ON THE TIMING
OF THE EXIT OF THE RAIN WHICH AGAIN IS IN QUESTION. SO...PUTTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE PERIODS WHERE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S EACH DAY WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS DEPENDING ON WHETHER RAIN OR
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FEET SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR FOG THROUGH 13Z. CEILINGS ABOVE 3000
FEET SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POTENTIALLY
MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER 01Z...SO PUT VCSH AT ALL SITES
BEGINNING 01Z-03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND.
WINDS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY...RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP
TO AROUND 50 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WITH RH VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT BY AFTN WITH
WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.
THANKS TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THESE TWO UPCOMING RAIN EVENTS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WHILE SOME SMALL
RISES ARE POSSIBLE...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL ONLY BE HALF
BANKFULL AT WORST...AND THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS