883
FXUS61 KAKQ 161712
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
112 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY
TODAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT AND PUSHING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTING WITH SAT LOOP/SFC OBS SHOWING NUMEROUS BINOVC
DEVELOPING ALLOWING FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE E OF I95. GIVEN THE
MOISTURE SEEN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...EXPECT THE SC CLOUDS TO FILL
BACK IN KEEPING SKIES PT SUNNY TO M CLOUDY. MILD WITH TEMPS RISING
ON AVERAGE ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES. HIGHS L-M70S.
PREVIOUS FORECAST:
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM TO THE WEST
APPROACHES, THOUGH REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST, BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD PRECLUDE LOW CLOUDS, FOG INLAND. OVERALL, A MILD NIGHT,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S (ABOUT 1 S.D.
ABOVE NORMAL).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ORIENTED WELL TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY
MORNING, AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING CLOUDS THU AFTN COURTESY OF PREFRONTAL SW FLOW SHUNTING
GULF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION. INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
US FROM REALIZING LOW 80S THAT ARE PROGGED BY LOCAL THICKNESS TOOL
AND WARMEST MET GUIDANCE. THAT SAID, DEEP LYR SW FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NR 80 FOR MOST. BEST CHC FOR
(LIGHT) RAIN ACTUALLY COMES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
NGT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NE ALONG
THE FRONT. BEST FORCING AND DYNAMICS, AND BEST RAIN CHANCES, STILL
REMAIN CONFINED FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ACCORDINGLY EXPECT BEST CHC FOR
RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA TO REMAIN ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. EVEN HERE THOUGH MEAGER, SHALLOW
FORCING SHOULD KEEP ANY QPF ON THE LOW SIDE. WILL STICK WITH LKLY
POP (AGAIN, W/ LOW QPF) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES, TAPERING
BACK TO A 30-40 POP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR SCT SHRAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA
BEFORE DAWN FRIDAY MORNING.
SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM N TO S FRI MORNING AS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF
THE AREA. AFTER A FAIR/DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SLIDES
NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE AGAIN KEPT QPF ON THE LOW SIDE,
WITH ECMWF/SREF/HPC CONSOLIDATED SOLN KEEPING BEST MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER
PATTERN. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRI/SAT. EARLY
MORNING LOWS SAT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PCPN SHIFTS TO THE SERN ZONES SAT NGT/SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING AS THE
LOW PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE M40S-M50S.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY
BUT COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 65-70.
COOLEST SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER SKIES CLEAR. LOWS U30S NWRN COUNTIES TO
L-M50S SERN COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S TO L50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER CHAOTIC LOW CLOUD PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA PER MOST
RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. CEILINGS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY
MVFR...WTIH SOME VFR...ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET. AFTER 00Z...MODELS SUGGEST THAT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN
BECOME WIDESPREAD NEAR THE BAY/OCEAN. TSECTNS SUGGEST LOWEST
LEVELS DRY OUT SOME AT KRIC...SO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS ABOVE IFR
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR IN FOG AT KRIC...BUT WIND
TURNING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP PREVENT STRATUS FROM COMING TOO
FAR WEST OF THE BAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
DURING THE 13Z-14Z TIME FRAME AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
NEXT COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN STALLS OVER NC. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
KRIC/KSBY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY BEHIND FRONT. WAVE IS
THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND MOVE NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/LOW CEILINGS...WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR POOR FLYING CONDITIONS AT KPHF/KORF/KECG.
&&
.MARINE...
NOON UPDATE...EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
VA/NC BORDER TO CURRITUCK LIGHT UNTIL 4 PM. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DROP BELOW 5 FT DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST SWELL.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
THE WEAKENING COASTAL LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND MAINLY HAZE WILL LIMIT
VISIBILITIES THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING PLUS SEAS WILL HOVER
AROUND 5 FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT
AND THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP A LITTLE BIT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MARINE MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
INLAND...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE/MIST.
EXPECT ONSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST AOB 15 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON THURSDAY AND HELPS TO PUSH
FINALLY PUSH THE COASTAL LOW OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SE-SW AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS SHOULD STAY
AOB 15 KT...HOWEVER GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT. A NW-N SURGE IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...PRIMARILY FOR NRN
COASTAL WATERS/CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND. AT THIS TIME WAVES/SEAS
APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...THEREFORE ANY POTENTIAL
HEADLINES SHOULD BE PURELY WIND-DRIVEN (15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KT POSSIBLE). IT IS TOO SOON TO ISSUE HEADLINES BUT WILL
MONITOR SCA POTENTIAL CLOSELY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
WATERS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AS WATER
LEVELS AT HIGH TIDE WILL FALL BELOW MINOR THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...
WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE
CYCLES WITH DEPARTURES AVERAGING AROUND 0.5 TO 1.0FT ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...BMD/WRS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...