533
FXUS63 KABR 161739 AAD
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK SFC
RIDGE SETTLES IN. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT AND TEMPS ARE FALLING
NICELY. READINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S WITH A
FEW MORE HOURS OF COOLING LEFT. NO SIGNS OF FOG FORMATION YET BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING THIS MORNING
FOR OAK CREEK AT WAKPALA AS IT HAS RISEN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN.
A FOLDED UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
BRING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS 850 MB
TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WILL BE WATCHING A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
SOUNDINGS INITIALLY ARE RATHER DRY BUT ENOUGH MOISTENING DOES TAKE
PLACE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY AND MAY BE ABLE TO GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST. CLEARED OUT THE WESTERN CWA FROM PRECIP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH QUICKLY BUILDS IN WITH INCREASING NW WINDS.
THEN ON FRIDAY...MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS GENERATING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL SO GENERALLY STUCK WITH LOW POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING AS MODELS ARE A BIT MORE SCANT WITH AREAL
COVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
LET THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER COMMENCE...AS THE REGION WILL
BE UNDERNEATH FAST NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE OUT PERIODS.
MULTIPLE S/WS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE INSTALLED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR
EACH SHORTWAVE TO WORK WITH...THINKING THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. AND...WHILE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OR EXCESSIVE IN
AMOUNT...EACH POTENTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION /WHETHER IT IS
SWEEPING THROUGH THE CWA ON THE WARM AIR SIDE OR THE COLD AIR SIDE
OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME
LOW END POPS AND LOW END QPF AMOUNTS OFF AND ON...ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 00Z ALLBLEND HAD THIS COVERED WELL.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWCASE SOME OF THE COLDEST COLD AIR
INTRUSIONS OF THE SEASON...THUS FAR...WORKING DOWN INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA...ALTHOUGH THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WERE NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT
OVER THE TIMING OF THE CAA EVENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KABR AND KATY AFTER 14Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN