Area Forecast Discussion


135 
FXUS65 KABQ 161810
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADING EAST AWAY FROM N NM WILL KEEP ANY
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS QUITE LIGHT...RELATIVELY FEW IN
NUMBER AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE OF MOSTLY
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS NEAR AND E OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTN AS CLOUD BASES SLOWLY LIFT AND ALSO CIGS
COVERAGE DECREASE. STILL SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MID AND
PERHAPS LATE AFTN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD. WHILE SOME LOCALIZED
MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSS ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07Z AND 16Z DUE TO RECENT RAIN AND SNOW...OVERALL
AFTER ABOUT 23Z THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE VFR.
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.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013...
DON/T HAVE ANY COMPELLING REASONS TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 
FORECAST. SHORT TERM ON TRACK AS UPPER SYSTEM TO PASS TO THE EAST 
LATER TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS 
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW FALLING OFF AND ON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 
CORRIDOR FROM RATON TO LAS VEGAS BUT NO INDICATIONS ATTM IT/S HAVING 
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...AND WITH TEMPS/DWPTS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 
FREEZING...GUESSING SNOW COULD BE MELTING AS IT FALLS OR STICKING 
ONLY ON UNPAVED SURFACES.  
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE FROM NEAR AVERAGE FAR SOUTHWEST TO 
NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST. 
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS 
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.  
DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. 
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CLIPS THE NORTHEAST THIRD AND SENDS ANOTHER 
FRONT INTO THE STATE FRIDAY. INHERITED POPS STILL LOOK GOOD WITH 
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT 
CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER. HIGHS DIVE TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW 
AVERAGE AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST. 
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM AND 
ASSOCIATED FRONT CLIP THE NORTHEAST NEXT MONDAY...SUPPRESSING HIGHS 
YET AGAIN TO BELOW AVERAGE. A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONT COULD 
IMPACT THE STATE AROUND THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.   
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER THROUGH THE 
MORNING AND WILL HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
CANYON/GAP WINDS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE MIDDLE 
RIO GRANDE...GLORIETA PASS...AND OTHER ONGOING AREAS. WINDS WILL 
VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BECOMING A BIT BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST 
IN SOME CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY 
STAY BELOW 25 TO 30 MPH WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 10 
TO 20 DEGREES. RH WILL STAY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN 
ZONES WITH MINIMUM VALUES HOLDING IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS 
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL WORK INTO WEST CENTRAL 
ZONES...DROPPING RH VALUES TO 20 TO 25 PERCENT THERE.
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE THEME ON THURSDAY WITH 
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE IN MOST AREAS. 
FAIRLY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CAN 
BE EXPECTED...BUT VENTILATION SHOULD REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SPILL 
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE ALL OF THE STATE WILL 
SEE SOME COOLING INTO FRIDAY...THE PLAINS LOOK TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF 
THE COOL AIR INVASION AT THIS POINT. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS WILL BE 
RATHER MEAGER AND FAVORING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE 
FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND WITH READINGS 
STILL BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AND ALMOST NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
WINDS ALOFT KEEP A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT 
SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ABSENCE OF ANY MAJOR 
PERTURBATIONS WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE DRIER SIDE THROUGH MID 
WEEK.
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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$