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FXUS65 KABQ 130921
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 AM MDT TUE AUG 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT... MEANWHILE...
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS ALREADY MAKING A RUN THROUGH THE NE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE PROGRESSION TO CONTINUE
TODAY...THOUGH SHOULD SLOW SOMEWHAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS BECOMING AN MCS LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
NAM MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE IN TAKING IN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AND WESTWARD NEARLY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. ODDLY...EAST WIND SPEEDS
AT ABQ HAVE COME DOWN SOME IN THE LATEST MODEL RUN. THUS...SKEPTICAL
THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR WEST. SUSPECT THAT THE
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT WILL WASH OUT QUICKLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE NAM PUSHES THE FRONT THAT FAR WEST...IT IS ALSO SHOWING
QUITE A FEW MORE SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING IT DRIER. CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS...BUT LARGELY SIDING WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR NOW.
MEANWHILE...THINK THE EAST WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONTINUE UPSLOPE
FLOW. STILL LOOKS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY MAY STILL BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT THE DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL IMPINGE A BIT MORE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THUS A
DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DESPITE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED FOR THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. THE ECMWF IS NOW FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH...AND ACTUALLY BREAKS DOWN
THE HIGH PRETTY SUBSTANTIALLY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND
REALLY NOT BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS UNTIL MONDAY. WHENEVER THIS
OCCURS...THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION.
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&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELONGATED UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND TO BUILD
AND GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS SIMILAR
SHOWING HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
IN THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW A NW TO SE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME
DOMINANT IN THE COMING DAYS IF NOT NEARLY DUE NORTH TO SOUTH BY
WEEK/S END. THE MID-FLOW WILL BE OCCASIONALLY ENHANCED OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS DISTURBANCES DROP SOUTH FROM THE FRONT RANGE
REGION OF COLORADO. IT ALSO FAVORS BACKDOOR FRONTS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND THESE WILL
BE THE FAVORED REGIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST...SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
POISED UPSTREAM AND WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE CLOCKWISE FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AND GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE DIVIDE AND THE FOUR CORNERS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS TREND
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ARGUABLY
BE THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AIDING ITS WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD
PUSH AND EXTENT OF INFLUENCE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS MOST
BULLISH ON STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE EC/NE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AND THUS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE FORCING THIS BOUNDARY
WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OR JUST BEYOND BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH LESS CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SHOWS A MORE MODEST EASTERLY PUSH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. EVEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE WEDENSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AND IMPROVED/DEEPER AFTERNOON
MIXING...VENTILATION RATES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING
DOWNWARD MOST NOTABLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE 30S.
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN.
HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE TRACKS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON WHERE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH ENDS UP AND
ULTIMATELY POP PLACEMENT. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT...COULD
SEE STORM COVERAGE RAMPING UP LATE WEEKEND. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA SLIDING EAST OVER NORTHERN NM EXPECTED THRU 09Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SW INTO
THE NE PLAINS WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR -TSRA
TUESDAY. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE DRY FOR
MID AUGUST. CONVECTION OVER THE NE TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ROBUST THAN MONDAY AND WILL HELP FORCE THE FRONTAL PUSH THRU THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL RESULT AFT 00Z FOR KSAF AND
KABQ.
GUYER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 90 60 92 60 / 10 5 5 5
DULCE........................... 82 49 84 49 / 20 10 20 10
CUBA............................ 85 52 86 52 / 20 20 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 85 52 86 52 / 10 5 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 79 50 80 49 / 20 10 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 84 54 85 53 / 20 10 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 82 55 83 55 / 10 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 88 59 90 58 / 10 5 10 20
CHAMA........................... 75 44 76 44 / 30 20 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 57 80 57 / 30 20 30 20
PECOS........................... 77 54 75 54 / 30 30 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 51 77 51 / 30 20 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 71 45 70 43 / 50 40 50 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 42 74 42 / 40 40 50 30
TAOS............................ 81 51 81 50 / 30 20 20 20
MORA............................ 75 52 74 52 / 50 40 50 30
ESPANOLA........................ 85 61 85 60 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 80 56 80 56 / 20 30 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 58 84 58 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 64 86 64 / 10 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 66 88 66 / 10 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 65 90 65 / 10 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 65 89 64 / 10 10 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 88 64 88 64 / 10 10 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 64 90 64 / 10 10 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 91 67 92 66 / 10 10 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 58 84 58 / 20 20 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 83 57 83 58 / 20 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 56 82 56 / 20 20 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 56 79 56 / 20 40 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 58 81 58 / 20 30 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 63 85 62 / 20 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 77 56 76 55 / 30 30 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 76 54 75 54 / 50 50 50 50
RATON........................... 80 55 79 53 / 50 50 50 40
SPRINGER........................ 82 56 79 54 / 50 50 50 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 79 54 77 54 / 40 50 50 40
CLAYTON......................... 79 61 78 61 / 50 50 40 40
ROY............................. 80 58 76 58 / 50 60 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 88 65 83 65 / 40 50 40 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 65 85 64 / 30 50 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 65 86 66 / 30 60 40 40
CLOVIS.......................... 89 64 83 64 / 20 60 40 30
PORTALES........................ 90 64 84 64 / 20 50 40 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 67 85 66 / 20 50 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 94 71 91 69 / 20 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 87 63 85 62 / 20 20 20 20
ELK............................. 81 60 79 59 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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