Hawaii 30 & 90 Day Narrative
742
FXHW40 KWBC 181231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AUGUST 2013
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE AROUND ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE HALF DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2013 THROUGH THE END OF JUNE, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 15.50 INCHES (89 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 8.63 INCHES (110 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 7.26 INCHES (75 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 51.55 INCHES (87 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE CONSENSUS AMONG CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART OF THE NATIONAL MULTI-MODEL
ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JULY 2013. THE NMME MODEL PREDICTS BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII IN AUGUST 2013.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 76.6 0.4 B40 7.6 8.4 10.3
KAHULUI EC 79.8 0.4 B40 0.3 0.5 0.6
HONOLULU EC 82.1 0.4 B40 0.1 0.2 0.4
LIHUE EC 79.7 0.4 B40 1.4 1.8 2.5
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID ASO 2013 - ASO 2014
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES PERSISTED
IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC - WHILE POSITIVE ANOMALIES PERSISTED IN THE
EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAINED NEAR AVERAGE -
WHILE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY ANOMALIES PERSISTED IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
CONVECTION REMAINED ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA AND WEAKLY SUPPRESSED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. MOST MODEL FORECASTS FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. OVERALL ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED THROUGH NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE FALL 2013.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII FROM ASO TO SON 2013
ACCORDING TO A MAJORITY OF CLIMATE MODELS. THE NMME MODEL GIVES NO INDICATION
OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2013 EC 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2013 EC 76.2 0.4 B40 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2013 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2013 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2014 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2014 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2014 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2014 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2014 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2014 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2014 EC 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2014 EC 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2014 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.4 B40 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2013 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2014 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2014 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2014 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2014 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2014 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2013 EC 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2013 EC 81.4 0.4 B40 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2013 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2013 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2014 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2014 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2014 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2014 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2014 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2014 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2014 EC 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2014 EC 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2014 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
ASO 2013 EC 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2013 EC 79.1 0.3 B40 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2013 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2013 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2014 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2014 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2014 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2014 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2014 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2014 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2014 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2014 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2014 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU AUG 15, 2013.