Hawaii 30 & 90 Day Narrative

078 
FXHW40 KWBC 151231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU JUN 15 2017
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JULY 2017
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE 
CURRENTLY FROM POSITIVE ONE-HALF TO ONE DEGREE C. 
FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF MAY 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 13.48 INCHES (85 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 14.71 INCHES (194 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 14.47 INCHES (152 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 34.65 INCHES (67 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART 
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS 
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL MONTHLY 
MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN JULY 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) 
FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED BY MOST 
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING JULY 2017. 
           TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE    LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO       A60   76.2   0.4   EC   7.1   9.5   11.4
KAHULUI    A60   79.2   0.4   EC   0.2   0.4   0.5
HONOLULU   A60   81.4   0.5   EC   0.2   0.4   0.5
LIHUE      A60   79.2   0.4   EC   1.5   1.7   1.9
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID JAS 2017 - JAS 2018
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS 
AND ALASKA, AND DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, FOR THE 
GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT 
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE 
PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) WERE NEAR AVERAGE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE, WHILE 
ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS WERE MEASURED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC AND PORTIONS OF 
THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. WEAK POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES 
HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAK NEGATIVE ANOMALIES 
HAVE EMERGED AT DEPTH NEAR 150 W. ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION ANOMALIES WERE WEAK 
OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE NCEP CFSV2 
AND MOST OF THE MODELS FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NMME ARE NOW FAVORING THE 
CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL. IN THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK, ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED 
(ABOUT 50 TO 55% CHANCE) THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FALL 2017.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII 
FROM JAS 2017 TO NDJ 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CPC'S STATISTICAL 
TOOL (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG). EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR DJF 2018 AND BEYOND.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR HAWAII FROM JAS 
TO NDJ 2017. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
ARE INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND NMME FOR HAWAII FROM JAS TO 
NDJ 2017. CPC CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
FOR THE REGION FOR THE INCOMING WINTER SEASONS FROM DJF TO JFM 2018. EQUAL 
CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR 
HAWAII IN FMA 2018 AND LONGER LEADS.
                      HILO
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JAS 2017  A65  76.1   0.4    EC   25.2   28.6   33.4
ASO 2017  A60  76.4   0.4    EC   26.1   28.8   33.3
SON 2017  A60  76.2   0.4    EC   24.3   30.2   40.8
OND 2017  A55  75.5   0.4    EC   28.3   34.5   42.0
NDJ 2017  A45  74.2   0.4    EC   26.4   36.6   43.0
DJF 2018   EC  72.8   0.4   B40   19.6   30.2   33.3
JFM 2018   EC  71.8   0.4   B40   22.0   32.0   44.5
FMA 2018   EC  71.7   0.4    EC   24.6   34.1   45.5
MAM 2018   EC  72.0   0.5    EC   22.5   28.4   34.0
AMJ 2018   EC  72.9   0.5    EC   21.4   23.7   29.0
MJJ 2018   EC  74.0   0.4    EC   20.2   27.5   29.1
JJA 2018   EC  75.2   0.4    EC   19.4   27.2   31.4
JAS 2018   EC  76.1   0.4    EC   25.2   28.6   33.4
\N                      KAHULUI
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JAS 2017  A65  79.0   0.4    EC   0.8    1.1    1.6 
ASO 2017  A60  79.4   0.4    EC   0.8    1.6    2.5 
SON 2017  A60  79.1   0.4    EC   2.1    3.3    4.8 
OND 2017  A55  77.8   0.4    EC   4.2    5.3    8.1 
NDJ 2017  A45  75.9   0.4    EC   5.2    7.6    9.5 
DJF 2018   EC  73.8   0.4   B40   4.6    6.9    8.7 
JFM 2018   EC  72.5   0.4   B40   4.2    6.2    8.2 
FMA 2018   EC  72.3   0.4    EC   3.2    4.1    6.4 
MAM 2018   EC  73.0   0.4    EC   2.5    3.5    4.6 
AMJ 2018   EC  74.3   0.5    EC   1.2    1.6    2.2 
MJJ 2018   EC  76.0   0.5    EC   0.7    1.1    1.8 
JJA 2018   EC  77.7   0.4    EC   0.7    1.1    1.5 
JAS 2018   EC  79.0   0.4    EC   0.8    1.1    1.6 
\N                      HONOLULU
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JAS 2017  A70  81.3   0.4    EC   1.0    1.4    1.7 
ASO 2017  A65  81.7   0.4    EC   1.6    2.4    3.1 
SON 2017  A60  81.4   0.4    EC   2.5    4.0    5.6 
OND 2017  A55  80.0   0.4    EC   4.4    6.4    8.5 
NDJ 2017  A45  77.7   0.5    EC   3.9    5.6    8.8 
DJF 2018   EC  75.3   0.5   B40   3.7    5.6    8.6 
JFM 2018   EC  73.9   0.4   B40   2.1    4.6    7.8 
FMA 2018   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   1.9    3.2    4.7 
MAM 2018   EC  74.8   0.4    EC   1.8    2.6    3.0 
AMJ 2018   EC  76.3   0.4    EC   1.2    1.6    1.8 
MJJ 2018   EC  78.2   0.4    EC   0.8    1.4    1.6 
JJA 2018   EC  79.9   0.4    EC   0.7    0.8    1.3 
JAS 2018   EC  81.3   0.4    EC   1.0    1.4    1.7 
\N                      LIHUE
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
JAS 2017  A70  79.0   0.3    EC   5.3    6.1    7.8 
ASO 2017  A65  79.4   0.3    EC   6.2    7.9    8.4 
SON 2017  A65  79.1   0.3    EC   9.2    10.0   11.2
OND 2017  A60  77.8   0.3    EC   9.2    11.7   15.6
NDJ 2017  A50  75.7   0.3    EC   8.6    12.1   16.9
DJF 2018   EC  73.6   0.4   B40   7.5    8.4    14.0
JFM 2018   EC  72.2   0.4   B40   6.5    8.8    13.8
FMA 2018   EC  72.1   0.5    EC   5.8    8.4    9.9 
MAM 2018   EC  72.8   0.5    EC   5.3    6.6    8.0 
AMJ 2018   EC  74.2   0.5    EC   4.7    5.5    6.0 
MJJ 2018   EC  76.0   0.5    EC   4.9    5.4    5.9 
JJA 2018   EC  77.7   0.4    EC   4.4    5.3    6.9 
JAS 2018   EC  79.0   0.3    EC   5.3    6.1    7.8 
\NFORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS
 CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY 
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE 
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT 
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR 
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE 
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL 
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL 
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID 
PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS 
SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE 
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU JUL 20, 2017.
$$