Hawaii 30 & 90 Day Narrative

408 
FXHW40 KWBC 161331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU FEB 16 2017
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MARCH 2017
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES SURROUNDING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE 
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR ZERO TO POSITIVE ONE-HALF DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 0.20 INCHES (5 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 0.21 INCHES (9 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 0.55 INCHES (19 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 12.34 INCHES (133 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART 
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 
SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS ELEVATES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL 
MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MARCH 2017. EQUAL 
CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO INDICATED 
BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR HAWAII DURING MARCH 2017. 
           TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE    LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO       A60   72.0   0.6   EC   5.7   10.8   15.2
KAHULUI    A60   72.9   0.5   EC   1.4   1.9   2.9
HONOLULU   A60   74.7   0.5   EC   0.6   0.8   1.9
LIHUE      A60   72.7   0.6   EC   1.9   2.6   3.6
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAM 2017 - MAM 2018
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS 
AND ALASKA, AND DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, FOR THE 
GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT 
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE 
PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR AVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC 
OCEAN, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  POSITIVE 
SUBSURFACE ANOMALIES HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE THERMOCLINE ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTION REMAINED SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC 
AND ENHANCED OVER INDONESIA. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2017. 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII 
FROM MAM 2017 TO JAS 2017 DUE TO PREDICTED ANOMALOUSLY ABOVE-NORMAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ASO 2017 AND BEYOND.
THE NCEP CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL FAVORS BELOW MEDIA RAINFALL FOR HAWAII 
FROM NDJ 2017 TO JFM 2018. SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT A WARM EVENT (EL NINO) 
BY THE NORTHERN SUMMER AND FALL, CONTINUING INTO WINTER 2017-18. IF CORRECT, 
HISTORICAL EL NINO COMPOSITES FAVOR INCREASED ODDS FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR 
HAWAII IN WINTER, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST FROM THE CA TOOL. 
                      HILO
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
MAM 2017  A70  72.0   0.5    EC   22.5   28.4   34.0
AMJ 2017  A65  72.9   0.5    EC   21.4   23.7   29.0
MJJ 2017  A60  74.0   0.4    EC   20.2   27.5   29.1
JJA 2017  A50  75.2   0.4    EC   19.4   27.2   31.4
JAS 2017  A40  76.1   0.4    EC   25.2   28.6   33.4
ASO 2017   EC  76.4   0.4    EC   26.1   28.8   33.3
SON 2017   EC  76.2   0.4    EC   24.3   30.2   40.8
OND 2017   EC  75.5   0.4    EC   28.3   34.5   42.0
NDJ 2017   EC  74.2   0.4   B40   26.4   36.6   43.0
DJF 2018   EC  72.8   0.4   B40   19.6   30.2   33.3
JFM 2018   EC  71.8   0.4   B40   22.0   32.0   44.5
FMA 2018   EC  71.7   0.4    EC   24.6   34.1   45.5
MAM 2018   EC  72.0   0.5    EC   22.5   28.4   34.0
\N                      KAHULUI
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
MAM 2017  A70  73.0   0.4    EC   2.5    3.5    4.6 
AMJ 2017  A65  74.3   0.5    EC   1.2    1.6    2.2 
MJJ 2017  A60  76.0   0.5    EC   0.7    1.1    1.8 
JJA 2017  A50  77.7   0.4    EC   0.7    1.1    1.5 
JAS 2017  A40  79.0   0.4    EC   0.8    1.1    1.6 
ASO 2017   EC  79.4   0.4    EC   0.8    1.6    2.5 
SON 2017   EC  79.1   0.4    EC   2.1    3.3    4.8 
OND 2017   EC  77.8   0.4    EC   4.2    5.3    8.1 
NDJ 2017   EC  75.9   0.4   B40   5.2    7.6    9.5 
DJF 2018   EC  73.8   0.4   B40   4.6    6.9    8.7 
JFM 2018   EC  72.5   0.4   B40   4.2    6.2    8.2 
FMA 2018   EC  72.3   0.4    EC   3.2    4.1    6.4 
MAM 2018   EC  73.0   0.4    EC   2.5    3.5    4.6 
\N                      HONOLULU
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
MAM 2017  A70  74.8   0.4    EC   1.8    2.6    3.0 
AMJ 2017  A65  76.3   0.4    EC   1.2    1.6    1.8 
MJJ 2017  A60  78.2   0.4    EC   0.8    1.4    1.6 
JJA 2017  A50  79.9   0.4    EC   0.7    0.8    1.3 
JAS 2017  A40  81.3   0.4    EC   1.0    1.4    1.7 
ASO 2017   EC  81.7   0.4    EC   1.6    2.4    3.1 
SON 2017   EC  81.4   0.4    EC   2.5    4.0    5.6 
OND 2017   EC  80.0   0.4    EC   4.4    6.4    8.5 
NDJ 2017   EC  77.7   0.5   B40   3.9    5.6    8.8 
DJF 2018   EC  75.3   0.5   B40   3.7    5.6    8.6 
JFM 2018   EC  73.9   0.4   B40   2.1    4.6    7.8 
FMA 2018   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   1.9    3.2    4.7 
MAM 2018   EC  74.8   0.4    EC   1.8    2.6    3.0 
\N                      LIHUE
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
MAM 2017  A70  72.8   0.5    EC   5.3    6.6    8.0 
AMJ 2017  A65  74.2   0.5    EC   4.7    5.5    6.0 
MJJ 2017  A60  76.0   0.5    EC   4.9    5.4    5.9 
JJA 2017  A50  77.7   0.4    EC   4.4    5.3    6.9 
JAS 2017  A40  79.0   0.3    EC   5.3    6.1    7.8 
ASO 2017   EC  79.4   0.3    EC   6.2    7.9    8.4 
SON 2017   EC  79.1   0.3    EC   9.2    10.0   11.2
OND 2017   EC  77.8   0.3    EC   9.2    11.7   15.6
NDJ 2017   EC  75.7   0.3   B40   8.6    12.1   16.9
DJF 2018   EC  73.6   0.4   B40   7.5    8.4    14.0
JFM 2018   EC  72.2   0.4   B40   6.5    8.8    13.8
FMA 2018   EC  72.1   0.5    EC   5.8    8.4    9.9 
MAM 2018   EC  72.8   0.5    EC   5.3    6.6    8.0 
\NFORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS
 CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY 
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE 
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT 
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR 
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE 
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL 
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL 
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID 
PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS 
SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE 
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU MAR 16, 2017.
$$