6-10 Day Narrative

956 
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 22 2017
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2017
TODAY'S MODELS EXHIBIT FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN.  
A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHICH EXTENDS INTO 
THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK RIDGING IS INDICATED UPSTREAM OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A 
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. FOR ALASKA, RIDGING 
AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL BUT WESTERN ALASKA, WHERE 
TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 
0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN RECEIVED THE GREATEST 
WEIGHTS IN TODAY'S 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DUE TO ANALYSIS OF ANALOG 
CORRELATIONS (WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT 
HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST) AND RECENT SKILL (BASED ON ANOMALY CORRELATIONS OF 
THE 500-HPA PATTERN DURING THE LAST 60 DAYS).
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS 
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA CONSISTENT 
WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. RIDGING 
AND/OR ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. 
RIDGING OVER EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS GENERALLY DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR 
PARTS OF EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE MOIST FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE SUPPORTS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA AND 
THE ALEUTIANS. TROUGHING OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED 
CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE 
UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST. 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS 
OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, WHICH 
IS CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DUE TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT 
ANOMALIES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% 
OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED 
ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR 
MODEL AGREEMENT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2017 
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, MOST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PREDICT A TROUGH NEAR THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, A WEAK RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE HIGH PLAINS, AND A 
DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY'S WEEK-2 MANUAL 
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION 
FROM THE 0Z ECMWF DUE TO SUPERIOR SKILL OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS. THE RESULTING 
500-HPA PATTERN FEATURES VERY WEAK ANOMALIES OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE DOMAIN 
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES. 
MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY 
FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC CONSISTENT WITH 
CALIBRATED ECMWF GUIDANCE. RIDGING LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA AND WASHINGTON STATE.
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MOST OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE OHIO AND 
TENNESSEE VALLEYS UNDERNEATH CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTS 
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF CAROLINA. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWEST, THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE 
ROCKIES, GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 500-HPA RIDGING AND/OR ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS. 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION 
ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE 
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 
11, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON 
DAY 11 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, 
DUE TO WEAK MEAN 500-HPA ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST DOMAIN AND LARGE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE SURFACE SPECIFICATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS 
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW 
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST 
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING 
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST 
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL 
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY 
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY 
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A 
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. 
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 
JULY 20
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19810624 - 19670701 - 19770627 - 20020605 - 19610624
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19810623 - 19670630 - 19770627 - 19680619 - 19600615
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2017
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N     
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    N     
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N     
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N     
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A     
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N     
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     A    N     
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    B    A     
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    A     
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    A     
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    N     
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    A     
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A     
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N     
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N     
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    B     
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B     
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A     
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N     
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    N     
 
                           
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2017
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N     
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    N     
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N     
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    N    A     
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N     
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N     
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A     
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    A     
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    B    A     
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A     
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    A     
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A     
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A     
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A     
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N     
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    N     
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A     
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A     
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$