30 Day Narrative

823 
FXUS07 KWBC 191331
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EST THU JAN 19 2017
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2017
THE FEBRUARY 2017 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON VARIOUS 
CLIMATE MODELS, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND THE LIKELY STATES OF PATTERNS OF 
EXTRA-TROPICAL VARIABILITY. THE CURRENT LA NINA CONTINUES TO FADE, AND A 
TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY FEBRUARY. CLIMATE SIGNALS 
ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA WERE THEREFORE NOT LARGELY CONSIDERED.
THE MJO IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE, WITH THE ENHANCED CONVECTIVE PHASE OVER THE 
WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND AFRICA. DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS, THE ENHANCED PHASE IS 
ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN (AND PERHAPS EASTERN) INDIAN 
OCEAN. THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (IOD) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN ITS NEGATIVE PHASE, 
WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR AND OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT, AND 
GENERALLY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE INDIAN OCEAN AND WESTERN 
PACIFIC. MJO COMPOSITES (BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ENHANCED PHASE OF 
THE MJO WILL REMAIN OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN) PROVIDE LITTLE GUIDANCE FOR THE U.S. 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR FEBRUARY.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 IS VERY UNCERTAIN, PRIMARILY DUE TO 
CONFLICTING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS. THERE ARE ELEVATED CHANCES 
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEAR-COASTAL CALIFORNIA, AND ALONG THE FAR 
SOUTHERN BORDER STATES TO, AND INCLUDING, THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC 
COAST STATES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED IN FEBRUARY FOR 
APPROXIMATELY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF ALASKA, PART OF WHICH IS DUE 
TO ABOVE-AVERAGE COASTAL SSTS. THE AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED VERSIONS OF THE 
NMME, THE NCAR CLIMATE MODELS, THE CANADIAN MODELS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE 
IMME (INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE), NASA, AND GFDL MODELS. EARLIER RUNS 
OF THE CFS MODEL (ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO) PREDICTED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR 
MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA. 
SINCE THAT TIME, THE CFS HAS UNDERGONE SEVERAL TRANSITIONS. THE FIRST INVOLVED 
A RELATIVELY COLD PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES, AND A RELATIVELY WARM PATTERN 
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. MOST RECENTLY, THE CFS FORECAST PATTERN HAS FLIPPED, 
FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, AND A RETURN 
TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST. THE FLUCTUATIONS OF THE CFS 
DURING THE PAST 10 DAYS SEEM TO SUGGEST A CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT HAS NOT YET 
LOCKED IN TO A STABLE SOLUTION. THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CFS OUTPUT ARE ALSO 
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PREDOMINANCE OF EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ANTICIPATED IN 
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS 
BASED ON SOME OF THE CFS MODEL RUNS, THE NCAR CLIMATE MODELS, AND TO A LESSER 
EXTENT, THE IMME. THIS AREA OF FAVORED BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO 
SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DEEP SNOW COVER.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2017 IS ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN, MOSTLY 
DUE TO CONFLICTING DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. ODDS FOR 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND FROM 
ABOUT ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES REGION, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE TWO AREAS OF FAVORED ABOVE-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION ARE SUPPORTED BY RECENT RUNS (ABOUT PAST 8-10 DAYS) OF THE 
PROBABILISTIC CFS, AND TO SOME EXTENT, THE NMME, AND THE NASA MODEL. 
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA, MOST OF NEVADA, 
ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE 
CAROLINAS. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CFS, WITH LESSER CONTRIBUTIONS FROM 
THE SMLR, CCA, AND THE OCN. THE CALIBRATED AND UNCALIBRATED NMME SOLUTIONS 
SUPPORT RELATIVE DRYNESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AS DO THE CANADIAN 
CANCM4 MODEL, NCAR, AND NASA GEOS5 RUNS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR FEB WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE JANUARY 31 2017
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.
$$