30 Day Narrative

620 
FXUS07 KWBC 301900
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2016
THE UPDATED MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE 
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE CLIMATE 
FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), WPC TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS DURING THE 
FIRST WEEK OF JULY, THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
OUTLOOKS, WEEK 2 AND WEEKS 3-4 DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS CURRENT 
CLIMATE CONDITIONS. DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THAT AN 
MJO SIGNAL WILL BE PRESENT IN JULY. THEREFORE, THE MJO STATE AND THE CURRENT 
ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WERE NOT CONSIDERED IN THE UPDATED JULY TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
WHILE THE AREA FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPANDED 
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS, PROBABILITIES ARE JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL 
VALUES OF 33 PERCENT OVER MOST REGIONS. RECENT FORECASTS OF THE CFS OVER THE 
LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, WHILE GENERALLY PREDICTING MOST 
AREAS OF THE U.S. TO EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHEN AVERAGED FOR 
JULY. SOME OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE CFS, AS WELL AS WEEK 2 FORECASTS OF THE 
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES, INDICATE A TENDENCY FOR INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE 
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LEADING TO DECREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 
THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS LARGER PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FORECASTS OF 
MONSOON PRECIPITATION OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST ALSO LEAD TO A MODERATION OF 
TEMPERATURES AND A LESSER CHANCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF 
JULY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK MADE EARLIER THIS MONTH. ALONG WITH A 
DECREASING CHANCE FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE CFS FOR THE MONTH OF 
JULY AND OUT TO TWO WEEKS IN THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS, THE PROBABILITY 
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS INCREASED FOR THE SOUTHEAST IN THE JULY 
OUTLOOK.
DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF AN ENHANCED MONSOON FROM THE ENVIRONMENT CANADA 
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM AND THE CFS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY INDICATE 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. AN AREA 
OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND 
THE WESTERN GULF COAST IN THE PREVIOUS JULY OUTLOOK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE 
CURRENT JULY OUTLOOK, GIVEN DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF BELOW-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE MONTH. RECENT JULY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE 
CFS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FOR THE REGION, LEADING TO AN INDICATION OF 
EQUAL CHANCES. THE PREDICTION OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS MAINTAINED IN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY RECENT CFS 
AND ENVIRONMENT CANADA JULY FORECASTS, AND OTHER DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR 
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. AN AREA OF ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO 
BE PREDICTED IN THE UPDATE OF THE JULY OUTLOOK, AS IN MODEL FORECASTS. RECENT 
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT BELOW MEDIAN IS LESS LIKELY ALONG THE 
COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUCH THAT EQUAL CHANCES IS NOW INDICATED IN THE 
UPDATE.
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS 
ALASKA, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY, ACCORDING TO DYNAMICAL 
MODEL PREDICTIONS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 
FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN COAST, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE THAN 2.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. ENHANCED ODDS FOR 
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE 
ALASKA PANHANDLE FOLLOWING CFS FORECASTS.
----------- PREVIOUS MESSAGE FROM JUNE 16 IS SHOWN BELOW ------------
THE JULY 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE TROPICS, AND 
THE EL NINO OF LATE 2015 AND EARLY 2016 HAS ENDED AND WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN 
THE CLIMATE CONDITIONS FOR NORTH AMERICA IN JULY. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO 
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A 
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF ENSO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE 
MJO RECENTLY STRENGTHENED, BUT DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MJO SIGNAL 
WILL WEAKEN BY JULY, AND MJO TELECONNECTIONS TO MID-LATITUDES ARE WEAKER DURING 
THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE EVOLVING MJO, ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM SYSTEMS, WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON 
JUNE 30. WITH CURRENTLY WEAK TROPICAL TELECONNECTIONS, THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JULY 2016 ARE DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM THE LATEST 
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), THE NORTH 
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE 
(IMME), MODEL GUIDANCE FOR WEEKS 3 AND 4 FROM THE CFS, JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL 
AGENCY (JMA), AND ECMWF, AS WELL AS CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS TO CURRENT SOIL 
MOISTURE CONDITIONS. 
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S., WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT 
INFLUENCE ON JULY TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE 
CONDITIONS RANK ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT 
PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS 
TIME OF YEAR. WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECASTS OF THE CFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION 
SYSTEMS INDICATE A GREATER CHANCE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF 
TEXAS. THE AREA OF EQUAL-CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS IS LARGELY BASED ON AREAS OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED NMME 
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH 
ABOVE-MEDIAN SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, AS INDICATED BY A CONSTRUCTED ANALOG OF 
SOIL MOISTURE, STATISTICAL TOOL. HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY CURRENT 
EVAPORATIVE DRYING OF THE SOIL MOISTURE. THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THAT ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S., ARE 
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, WHICH 
INCORPORATE THE DECADAL CLIMATE  WARMING TRENDS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL 
INFLUENCE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS.
CALIBRATED PROBABILITIES FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODELS 
INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS OF 
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA, POTENTIALLY RELATED TO ENHANCED TROPICAL 
ACTIVITY. CALIBRATED NMME PRECIPITATION FORECASTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 
DECADAL CLIMATE TREND, INDICATE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INCLUDING THE NORTH-CENTRAL 
ROCKIES, WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
NMME, INCLUDING CFS, DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASED 
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, SOUTHERN 
COASTAL ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE 
ANOMALIES ARE MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL 
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR 
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUG ... WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 21 2016
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.
$$