30 Day Narrative

575 
FXUS07 KWBC 191231
PMD30D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2016
THE JUNE 2016 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DYNAMICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE, STATISTICAL TOOLS, AND CLIMATE LINKAGES TO SOIL MOISTURE 
CONDITIONS. EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A DIMINISHING ROLE IN CLIMATE ANOMALIES 
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN. PLEASE SEE THE ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION AT: 
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/ENSO_ADVISORY/ FOR A 
MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE MJO STRENGTHENED DURING MID-MAY, ITS EFFECTS ON THE 
EXTRATROPICS ARE LESS IMPACTFUL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WARM SEASON. THE 
EVOLVING MJO ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES AND THEIR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE 
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EARLY SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR THE UPDATE ON MAY 31. 
THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS DEPICT INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN U.S., WHILE SOIL MOISTURE 
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON JUNE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT 
PLAINS. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE VALUES RANK ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS A 
LARGE AREA OF THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH VALUES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, MUCH OF 
NEBRASKA, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR 
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE 
GREAT PLAINS ARE BASED ON THIS ANOMALOUS SOIL MOISTURE AND ARE ALSO SUPPORTED 
BY THE CALIBRATED NMME TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES. THE SPATIAL PATTERN FOR EQUAL 
CHANCES OF BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL U.S. IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND 
STATISTICAL TOOLS.
A CONSENSUS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FEATURES ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS, LOWER 
TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THE CALIBRATED NMME 
PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATES THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION, ALBEIT WITH MODEST PROBABILITIES, INCLUDE THE NORTH-CENTRAL 
ROCKIES AND THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF COAST.  A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR 
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS BASED ON THE 
CFS MODEL FOR JUNE ALONG WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF MODEL FOR WEEKS 3 AND 
4, WHICH COVERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE 
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF 
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON A MONTHLY TIME SCALE.
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF 
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALASKA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA, AND 
THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE AVERAGING MORE 
THAN 1.5 DEGREES C ABOVE-NORMAL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A RELATIVELY WET 
JUNE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. 
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATE REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR JUN WILL BE ISSUED ON TUE MAY 31 2016
THESE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD.
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